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000
FXUS62 KMLB 131951
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
351 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR FROM ORLANDO AND THE CAPE SOUTH INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE SOME BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH OUTFLOW AND
THE ECSB. CU FIELD IS LOOKING PRETTY SPARSE ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST ASSOCD
WITH THE SEA BREEZE NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY...LATE SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND POSSIBLY ONGOING CONVECTION...
IS PROGGED TO REACH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. SUFFICIENT
HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
STORMS NORTH OF ORLANDO. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL NW ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S EVEN AT
THE COAST DUE TO LATE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SAT-SUN...SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN FEATURES THE WRN ATLC H50 TROUGH
MOVING EAST AS SRN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER FL...RESULTING IN
OVERALL WARMING/DRYING ALOFT. WRN ATLC SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WEAKENS
AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH...BEFORE THE RIDGE GETS REINFORCED FROM
THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC
SEABOARD.

WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW PROGGED TO WASH OUT A BIT FARTHER
NORTH. THIS MEANS A MINIMAL PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NRN
CWA...AND RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW IS A BIT WEAKER AND VEERS MORE
QUICKLY TO SE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST CHANGES ARE MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT THE MEAN PWAT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS PROGGED TO BE LOWER
THAN NORMAL. FORECAST FEATURES ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 1-3F ABOVE NORMAL. MINS NOT TOO
FAR FROM NORMS.

MON-THU...EAST-WEST ORIENTED H50 RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WILL ONLY SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL SE TO SRLY WIND FLOW
WILL VEER MORE TWD SWRLY WED-THU. BOTH THE ECM AND (MORESO) THE GFS
SHOW SOME MOISTURE ROUNDING THE ATLC RIDGE FROM THE SE...APPARENTLY
FROM THE NRN TIP OF A T-WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY TAFB OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS MERITS NUDGING POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
MON...AND IT APPEARS LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SLOW EROSION OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE 30-40 PCT RANGE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM
MID JUNE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU 12Z AT THE TERMINALS. SCT TSRA EXPECTED FRI ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ESP DAB AS BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE W/SW FLOW AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

FRI...A LITTLE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AT LEAST DELAY THE ONSET
OF THE SEA BREEZE AND MAY PREVENT IT FROM DEVELOPING. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO PUSH SE AND OFF THE COAST NORTH
OF THE CAPE DURING THE MID DAY AND AFTN.

SAT-MON...A MORE DOMINANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT AND
CONTINUE THRU MON. THIS WILL KEEP MOST STORMS OVER THE PENINSULA.
COULD SEE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS INVOF JUPITER INLET ON MON
ASSCD WITH NRN TIP OF WWD MOVING T-WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  73  87 /  10  30  20  20
MCO  72  93  73  92 /  10  20  20  20
MLB  73  91  73  88 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  73  91  72  88 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  74  94  74  92 /  10  30  20  20
SFB  74  94  74  92 /  10  30  20  20
ORL  75  93  75  92 /  10  30  20  20
FPR  72  91  71  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...KELLY
IMPACT WX/RADAR...BRAGAW