Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 141533
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1030 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Current...High pressure ridge axis extends from the SE GOMEX across
the Bahamas along 25-26N with  separate centered over south Florida,
and east of the central Bahamas. Developing SW flow has allowed for
a rapid warmup in temps from mins in the U30s-L40s up into the L60s
as of 10 AM. Leading edge of marine stratocumulus deck continues to
erode as it advects toward the central peninsula, with just a few
scraps reaching NW of I-4. These clouds are pancaking out against a
stout subsidence cap seen on the TBW RAOB right at 850MB. Otherwise
full sun areawide at this time.

Remainder of today...Warmer temps (L70s) on tap with continued SW
winds. Shallow moisture advection beneath the cap on 20KT low level
westerlies should allow for skies to become partly cloudy for all
areas, except for the southern half to third of the CWA and perhaps
right along the east coast as well. Periods of mostly cloudy skies
are likely over the western interior.

Zones/grids look fine save for some cosmetic changes to skies/temps/
winds to account for current conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SKC to SCT040 giving way to SCT-BKN040-50 KLEE-KISM
to KMLB...FEW-SCT045-050 to the south.

&&

.MARINE...Fine boating conditions today with westerly winds 5-10KT
south of SIPF1 and 10-15KT to the north. Offshore component keeps
seas depressed to 1-2FT near shore, and 2-3FT offshore.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Sharp

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/

Tonight...The surface ridge will remain from south Florida and
extend eastward into the Atlantic. This will allow for light
southwest flow and milder low temps in the 50s nrn sections to mid
to upper 40s across the south closer to the ridge. Short range
guidance indicates a period of enhanced cloudiness will linger
across the nrn half of the forecast area with a persistent stratocu
deck in the low level WSW flow.

Fri-Sun...Mid level trough axis moves into the Southeast U.S. late
week, shifting a weak cool front slowly through the region Friday
night into early Saturday. Models continue to generate a few
showers, mainly across northern portions of central Florida ahead of
this boundary on Friday. Will leave rain chances around 20 percent
for this area, as overall moisture is fairly low and limited to the
lower levels. Dry conditions are then expected into the weekend as
boundary moves south, stalls and weakens near Lake Okeechobee. Highs
will range from the low to mid 70s Friday, dropping slightly over
northern areas behind the weak front Saturday, and then warm into
the upper 70s over much of the region Sunday. Lows will generally
remain in the 50s Fri/Sat nights and then are expected to be milder
in the low/mid 60s Sun night.

Mon-Wed...Models are coming into better agreement into early next
week with timing of next frontal boundary to move through the
region. The ECMWF has trended more toward the GFS solution keeping a
stronger mid level ridge in place across South Florida and Caribbean
region. This will keep boundary and deeper moisture/rain chances
north of the region, with warm and generally dry conditions in place
across east central Florida through at least Tuesday. Ridge is then
shunted southward as S/W moves through the southern U.S., pushing
front through the area. ECMWF is drier with this frontal passage
than the GFS, but for now will keep a slight chance for showers
across much of east central Florida for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC through around 12z. SCT-BKN035-040 expected to
KLEE vcnty around 15z then moving eastward along and north of KISM-
KTIX line from 15z-21z into the afternoon. Areas of VFR CIGS around
4 kft will linger along and north of a KISM-KMLB line into the
evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Westerly wind will be slightly stronger to 10-15 knots
farther north of the ridge axis across the nrn waters to 5-10 knots
across the srn waters. Seas 2-3 ft near shore to 3-4 ft offshore.

Tonight...W/SW winds to 10-15 knots nrn and central waters will
continue to 5-10 knots from Sebastian to Jupiter Inlet. Seas 2 ft
near shore to 3 ft offshore for the overnight hours.

Tonight-Thursday...Winds/seas will continue to subside as a high
pressure ridge builds over south Florida and then expands eastward
across the Bahamas. Northwest winds will back to westerly and
decrease from 12-17KT to around 7-12KT...the highest speeds in this
range occurring north of Cape Canaveral. Seas subsiding to 2FT near
shore as 3-4FT offshore.

Friday-Monday...A weak cold front is then forecast to move through
the region Friday night into Saturday, switching winds briefly out
of the north and building seas to 4-5 feet offshore. High pressure
building offshore north of the area will then allow winds to quickly
veer onshore into Sunday, with speeds forecast to remain less than
15 knots and seas around 2-3 feet.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Modest low level moistening with W/SW flow off the Gulf will
keep Min RHS from around 50 percent north to 40-45 percent across
the far south.

Thursday-Friday...Increasing southwest flow emanating from the Gulf
of Mexico will provide shallow low level air mass moistening. Expect
min RH values in the M40s Thursday and U40s-L50s on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  53  74  53 /   0  10  20  10
MCO  72  54  74  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLB  71  52  75  57 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  71  49  74  56 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  71  55  74  55 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  72  54  74  54 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  72  57  74  57 /   0  10  20  10
FPR  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


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