173
FXUS62 KMLB 061641
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1241 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

IMPACT:
TS likely for Greater Orlando terminals, including MCO, between
06/19Z-07/00Z. A 15% risk for storms with severe wind/hail.

DISCUSSION:
Plentiful instability will overturn this afternoon as the sea
breezes collide over the peninsula, sparking scattered to numerous
storms between 19Z and 00Z. Gusty winds to 30-50 KT and coin-
sized hail are possible in a few storms, along with frequent
lightning. Highest coverage will be around Greater Orlando
initially before drifting toward the coastal sites through 03Z
before diminishing overnight. Prevailing winds will be SW 5-15 KT,
except E/SE 8-15 KT for the coastal terminals. VFR except near
storms. Overnight, light/variable winds are expected. Another
round of SCT storms expected Friday beyond 07/20Z.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

-Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to
isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening.

-Hot conditions forecast today and through the weekend, with near
record highs and heat index values in the 100 to 107 range.

-Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend.

Morning central FL soundings at TBW and XMR indicate the potential
for isolated strong to severe storms across east central FL this
afternoon. MUCAPE is near 3500 J/kg, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and steep
mid level lapse rates near 7 degs C/km should support isolated
storms with the potential for one inch hail (5% chance) and
downburst winds (5% chance) up to 60 mph. Short range convective
models indicate the sea breeze should push slowly inland through
early afternoon with initial convection developing near or inland
from the St Johns River basin. By 3-7 pm, isolated storms may
become strong to severe across inland areas including metro
Orlando and Osceola county. By early evening storms will likely
propagate southward toward Okeechobee county and also back toward
the east coast with westerly steering flow aloft. Frequent
lightning will also accompany some of the storms.

Before receiving some rain-cooled air in some areas with late
afternoon storms, high temps should reach the mid to upper 90s
across portions of the interior. The combination of the heat and
humidity will produce peak heat index values in the 102-107 range
(close to heat advisory criteria). Take extra precaution if
participating in outdoor activities today. Take frequent breaks
in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the
signs of heat related illness!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Update...South winds to 10 knots this morning with seas near 2 ft
at buoys 41009/41010 will support generally good boating conditions
today. There will be a lightning and strong wind gust threat with
storms moving toward the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic
waters generally from 6pm to 9pm this evening.

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
slides southward across the waters with lighter winds around 5-8
knots out of the S/SSW this morning, but eventually becoming SE and
increasing to 10-15 knots into the afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze forms and shifts inland.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across land
areas into the mid afternoon and through the evening from boundary
collisions across the interior. Much of this activity should remain
over land before it diminishes through late evening, but some storms
may be able to shift back toward the coast and offshore, especially
off of the Volusia/Brevard and Indian River coastline. Some strong
to isolated severe storms will be possible, producing wind gusts up
to 40-60 mph and small hail.

Winds veer southerly and remain elevated around 10-15 knots into the
evening, with winds continuing to veer to the W/SW overnight. Seas
will range from 2-3 feet.

Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into
late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north
Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into
the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the
period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the
S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the
afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be
possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and
storm chances begin to decrease into the weekend before rising once
again into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  94  73  93 /  30  50  10  20
MCO  74  95  76  96 /  30  50  10  20
MLB  72  92  74  93 /  40  50  20  20
VRB  72  93  73  94 /  40  50  20  30
LEE  75  94  76  96 /  20  40  10  10
SFB  74  96  75  97 /  20  50  10  20
ORL  75  95  76  96 /  30  50  10  20
FPR  71  94  73  94 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Volkmer
AVIATION...Heil