033
FXUS64 KLUB 132333
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
633 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Breezy northerly winds following last night`s weak FROPA are set to
subside early this evening before veering easterly overnight as a
surface ridge pushes through. Satellite shows just a few cumulus
over the region this afternoon which may thicken around the
Childress area later on as a compact vort lobe curls south across
far western Oklahoma, but any showers with this impulse are expected
to stay to its east.

Northwest flow deamplifies tonight as heights slowly rebound ahead
of upper ridging for Tuesday. Along with much warmer temperatures, a
return to southerly flow at the surface will keep some of our
moisture from mixing out too much, most notably off the Caprock
where dewpoints may hold in the 50s through the afternoon. Strong
heating along the western edge of this moisture/pseudo-dryline looks
more supportive of very spotty and high-based convective development
by late afternoon. Even though tall inverted-V profiles with LCLs
around 10k feet tend to produce more virga than rain, slow storm
motions tomorrow would stand a good chance of moistening the sub-
cloud layer and eventually producing some rain. Such low coverage
however warrants just a 10% precip mention for areas east of
Interstate 27 and Highway 87.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Upper ridging will begin moving east of the region Wednesday. An
upper shortwave pushing across the Northern Plains will push a cold
front southward Wednesday with the front reaching our northern zones
by Wednesday evening/night. Though upper lift will be limited
Wednesday evening, there will be more than enough surface moisture
in place for possible for some convective development along the
front. Better lift moves into the region by late morning/early
afternoon Thursday as an upper low to our west pushes closer to the
FA , but models differ on precip chances. The GFS keeps the front
stopped across our northern zones until late Thursday while the
ECMWF brings the front through the FA by 12Z. The NAM is slightly
later than the ECMWF with the FROPA, but only by 3 hours. The timing
suggested by the GFS would result in a low precip chances as surface
convergence/frontal forcing would remain mostly to our north while
the ECMWF and NAM would be more conducive for widespread convection
through much of the day Thursday. Upper ridging is progged to set up
over the southcentral CONUS by late Friday and will help to suppress
most convection through the weekend while also bringing highs back
into the low to upper 90s area wide. Models do bring more relief
from the upper ridge and warm temps next week with a series of
disturbances bringing more fronts into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
three sites. Breezy north winds will become light as they veer to
the south by tomorrow. Southerly winds below 15 knots expected
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...11