286
FXUS62 KMLB 031745
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
145 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Clearing of a thick cumulus field has begun at the coast with the
inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Behind the
boundary, east winds will gust up to 20 knots at coastal terminals
this afternoon. A collision of the sea breezes will occur along the
western coast this afternoon, leaving most area sites dry. Have
included VCSH mention for KMCO/KSFB/KISM/KLEE this afternoon for
potential development, with LEE the only candidate with TS
possibility. VFR thru TAF period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

No changes needed to the forecast this morning, as everything
remains on track. High pressure over the western Atlantic
continues to influence the local area, with the ridge axis
extended towards northern Florida. Onshore flow will lead to a sea
breeze collision over the western half of the peninsula. Thus,
have maintained 20-30% PoPs for much of the area, while coastal
areas from Brevard County northward look to remain dry. The
highest chance for showers and storms this afternoon will be
across Okeechobee County, with PoPs 40% there. Timing of
convection will be this afternoon into early evening. The main
threats will be lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Light onshore flow will enhance behind the sea breeze this
afternoon, becoming around 10-15mph, especially along the coast.
Highs this afternoon in the upper 80s for the coastal counties,
with lower 90s inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Currently-Today...Favorable boating conditions are expected with
high pressure in control over the western Atlantic. Onshore east
winds will increase into the afternoon at 10-14kts. Isolated to
scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast this afternoon
and into the early overnight hours. Seas are forecast to build to
1-3ft with up to 4ft over the offshore Brevard county waters.

Tuesday-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to scattered
showers and lightning storms are forecast into the afternoon and
evening Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. Scattered showers and
lighting storms are forecast Thursday which will be capable of
occasional to frequent cloud to water lighting strikes and gusty
winds. East winds will increase into the afternoon at 8-14kts
through Wednesday and then veer south-southwest overnight
Wednesday night and Thursday night before backing onshore into
each afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 1-3ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  88  72  90 /  10  10  20  40
MCO  70  92  72  94 /  10  20  20  50
MLB  73  88  74  89 /  10  20  20  50
VRB  71  88  72  90 /  10  20  20  50
LEE  71  93  73  94 /  20  30  20  50
SFB  70  92  72  94 /  10  20  10  50
ORL  72  92  73  94 /  10  20  20  50
FPR  70  88  72  90 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper