942
FXUS62 KMLB 020912
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
512 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today...High pressure centered off the NC coast early this morning
will continue seaward and away from the area. An gradual easing
of the pressure gradient will produce a little less wind than
yesterday though the sea breeze circulation will enhance the
onshore flow with gusts up to 25 mph esp at the coast this aftn.
Increased moisture in the mid and upper levels will bring some
cloudiness from the west. While in the low levels, marine stratocu
will push onshore with isolated showers along the Treasure coast.
The increased moisture will support 30-40% PoPs across southern
and interior sections as the sea breeze pushes inland with a late
collision over the far interior. Lowest rain chances will be over
Volusia county. CAMs show another round of scattered storms
pushing offshore the Treasure coast late evening into the
overnight. This may be assocd with earlier storms over S/SW FL
lifting NE and assocd outflow sparking add`l convection. Have
drawn 30-40% PoPs south of the Cape for this possibility. Max
temps remaining seasonable in the mid 80s coast and around 90
interior.

Mon-Sat...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle
southward from 30N lat Mon to south FL Thu-Fri as a weak frontal
boundary pushes into the deep South supported by a deep upper
cut-off low rotating into the Great Lakes. Moisture looks fairly
limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more
confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend
with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue thru the end of
the week. These low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by
late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. This
will also shift the daily sea breeze collisions to our (east)
side of the peninsula. Provided there is sufficient moisture,
scattered sea breeze storms may result but residual mid level dry
air may produce strong storms, accompanied by gusty winds and of
course lightning strikes which could spark add`l brush fires. This
is the typical story as we transition to the wet season. Heat Risk
will become a concern once again late this week with peak heat
indices reaching 100-105 Thu-Fri and 102-107 on Sat.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure offshore the Carolina coast this morning will
continue seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis
will extend westward across north Florida into midweek,
maintaining the onshore flow. The ridge axis is forecast to then
slip south across the waters late week. Conditions will be less
than ideal today for small craft but conditions will become more
favorable Monday and continue much of the upcoming week.

ESE winds starting out near 15 knots this morning and choppy seas
4 to 5 feet will gradually improve through the afternoon. The
onshore flow will decrease 7-10 knots tonight with slight
enhancement of 12-14 knots each aftn near the coast behind the
sea breeze. Seas generally 2-3 FT Tue-Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue
to move away from the area while a trailing ridge axis extends
westward to the southeast US coast through mid week. This will
maintain an onshore flow, enhanced by the sea breeze each
afternoon reaching 10-15 mph, gusting near 20 mph. Dispersion
values will be Very Good and there will continue to be a concern
for spread of any new or ongoing fires despite the fact that Red
Flag conditions are not forecast. Min RH values will hold near 40%
over the interior and 50-55% near the coast. Isolated to scattered
showers and lightning storms will be possible each day. High
temperatures will gradually warm each day, returning to the mid
90s interior by mid week and spreading to the east coast late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Onshore moving showers are expected this morning near the
Treasure Coast before scattered lightning storms develop this
afternoon over the W interior along boundary collisions. E winds
at 5-12kts will increase into the afternoon at 12-15kts with gusts
to 20-24kts. TEMPO groups for SHRA/TSRA will likely be added
later at KSUA/KISM as hi-res guidance comes into better agreement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  87  71 /  20  10  30  10
MCO  89  71  90  71 /  30  20  40  10
MLB  86  73  87  73 /  30  30  40  20
VRB  87  71  88  71 /  40  30  40  20
LEE  90  71  91  72 /  30  20  40  10
SFB  89  71  91  71 /  30  20  40  10
ORL  90  72  91  72 /  30  20  40  10
FPR  86  70  87  71 /  40  40  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Fehling