890
FXUS62 KMLB 021902
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
302 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Rest of Today-Monday...Scattered showers have developed along the
sea breeze as it moves inland across the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee County early this afternoon. This activity is forecast
to continue inland, with a collision with the west coast sea
breeze occurring over the western half of the peninsula. CAMs
continue to show showers and storms then drifting back towards the
coast Treasure and southern Space Coasts along westerly mid to
upper level flow late this evening into the overnight hours. The
highest PoPs are forecast in this area (30-50%) with areas to the
north (20-30%) having a lower chance for activity. The main
threats with any storms will be gusty winds and lightning strikes.
Light onshore flow overnight will keep low temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s early Monday morning.

As the ridge drifts farther into the western Atlantic, the ridge
axis will settle in over north Florida, maintaining onshore flow
through the day. Winds will continue to diminish, but the east
coast sea breeze developing in the late morning and early
afternoon will enhance winds to around 10-15mph, with gusts to
around 20mph along the coast. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue, with PoPs 30-40%. The highest chances look to be across
the interior in the afternoon, which will be closest to the sea
breeze collision over the western half of the peninsula. The
warming trend continues, with highs forecast to reach the upper
80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Increased moisture will
allow for heat indices to creep into the upper 90s inland from the
Treasure Coast and in Okeechobee County.

Tuesday-Saturday...(modified previous) The ridge axis drifts from
north Florida to south FL through the period, as a weak frontal
boundary pushes into the deep South, supported by a deep upper
cut- off low rotating into the Great Lakes. Moisture looks fairly
limited so the daily 30-50% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more
confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend
with highs reaching mid 90s Tue thru the end of the week. These
low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the
sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. This will also shift
the daily sea breeze collisions to our (east) side of the
peninsula. Provided there is sufficient moisture, scattered sea
breeze storms may result but residual mid level dry air may
produce strong storms, accompanied by gusty winds and of course
lightning strikes which could spark add`l brush fires. This is the
typical story as we transition to the wet season. Heat Risk will
become a concern once again late this week with peak heat indices
reaching 100-105 Thu-Fri and 102-107 on Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure will drift farther into the western Atlantic
through mid-week, with the ridge axis forecast to extend towards
the Florida peninsula through late week. A weak cool front is
forecast to approach the area Friday into Friday night, though
this feature will likely stall before making it to east central
Florida. Thus, boating conditions will continue to improve into
Monday, with onshore flow remaining under 15kts through Wednesday.
By Thursday, winds veer southeasterly, as the ridge axis moves
southward, with winds then veering southerly on Friday. Seas 3-4ft
tonight becoming 2-3ft through the remainder of the period. Daily
shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast, with some activity
pushing offshore in the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure influence will persist into mid week, maintaining
sensitive fire weather conditions. Scattered showers and isolated
lightning storms this afternoon, mainly south and west of
Orlando. Onshore flow will aid the east coast sea breeze, keeping
the collision on the west side of the peninsula. Breezy conditions
behind the sea breeze, with gusts up to around 20 to 25mph behind
it. Sensitive fire weather conditions persist due to min RH
between 40-45% over the interior. Very good to excellent
dispersion expected.

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through mid week, as a high
temperatures gradually warm each day, becoming near 90 along the
coast and lower 90s inland. Onshore flow will continue, enhanced
each day by the sea breeze. Min RH values remaining around 45%
over the interior, with higher min RH towards the coast. Good to
very good dispersion each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Dense cu layer has developed across the entire area this afternoon
with a eastward-moving cirrus deck over northern terminals. Isolated
showers have developed on the northern and eastern shores of Lake
Okeechobee towards KFPR/KSUA, which will be the focus for any
organized activity through the afternoon. Confidence is not high
enough to include any TEMPO groups with this package, but may need
addition beyond 20Z for VRB/FPR/SUA. Activity along the west coast
sea breeze will push inland over the next few hours, but including
only vicinity mentions for interior terminals. East winds up of 10-
15 knots gusting above 20 knots at coastal sites through 00Z, with
winds diminishing overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  71  88 /  20  30  10  30
MCO  71  90  71  92 /  20  40  10  40
MLB  73  87  73  88 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  71  88  71  89 /  40  40  20  40
LEE  72  91  71  93 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  71  90  71  92 /  20  40  10  40
ORL  72  91  72  92 /  20  40  10  40
FPR  71  87  70  88 /  40  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper