194
FXUS64 KFWD 040659
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
159 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

The quiet that North and Central Texas has observed over the last
few hours will eventually be disrupted. To our north, showers and
storms have blossomed across Oklahoma just south of a instability
gradient as a shortwave upper low moves across southeastern Kansas.
The cluster should begin to eventually move south/southeast
toward the Red River, impacting areas generally near and east of
I-35 through the morning hours. Strong to severe storms will be
possible, with a primary threat of damaging winds and secondary
threat of hail. Instances of heavy rain may re- aggravate flooding
in already saturated spots. While the MCS should move out of the
region in the early afternoon, lingering isolated convection will
be possible for an additional few hours. We`ll see a lull in
activity late this afternoon, with afternoon highs peaking in the
80s and 80s. Persistently increased humidity will push afternoon
heat index values above ambient temperatures, up to near 100-108
degrees. While the majority of the I-35 corridor will "reach
criteria" today, our Heat Advisory criteria is a 2 day window. As
such, we will only be issuing a Heat Advisory for portions of
Central Texas. Nonetheless, it will feel quite hot this first week
of June, so make sure to practice heat safety when out and about!

Overnight into Wednesday, a very rinse-wash-repeat scenario is
expected as another cluster of storms is expected to move south
across Oklahoma and through North and Central Texas once again.
Strong to severe storms capable of primarily large hail and
damaging winds will be possible as the cluster moves across our
eastern zones. Flooding will once again be an additional concern,
so make sure to keep up with the forecast and road conditions. For
those that do not see storms (mainly west of I-35), Wednesday will
be hot and humid with highs in the low-mid 90s. While Heat
Advisory criteria will be hit across portions of Central Texas,
there is better "bust potential" regarding location of storms and
the associated cold pools. Have foregone issuing any heat product
for Wednesday at this time, but will need to be watched in future
issuances.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/
/Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/

The heat will continue to be the main headline as we move through
the middle of the upcoming week. Afternoon highs will range in
the low to mid 90s, with continued saturation in the low levels as
seen by our dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Heat indices will
reach up to 105 to 109 degrees at times across portions of North
and Central Texas, which may result in heat illness in some of our
population. Be sure to take frequent breaks over the next several
days, avoid peak heating hours, and drink plenty of water.

The other talking point will be the continued low chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week and once
again toward the end of the week into the weekend. Coverage,
timing, and hazards will need to continue to be refined over the
next several days as confidence remains quite low. Much of this
will hinge on the exact placement of remnant outflow boundaries,
on top on the evolution of potential convective clusters and they
continue to push to the south and east across the Red River.
Thankfully it appears that coverage will be lower than it has been
in recent days, which will help to provide a much needed break as
clean up crews continue to work to clean up damage across
portions of our coverage area. Flooding issues will continue to be
a threat as well as any additional rainfall could cause problems
at this point. Soils are incredibly saturated and reservoir lakes
are full. It won`t take much to cause additional flooding
problems, so continue to be aware of this as we move through the
days.

As has been said several times over the past few days, continue
to check back for updates as the forecast can and will evolve.
Confidence has been quite low as of late as guidance has been all
over the place. Short term and near term changes may be necessary
at times depending on real-time observations through radar, and
satellite interpretation and surface analysis.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs are expected to move across the TAF sites within the
next couple of hours, and is on track as downstream obs from ACT
already have cigs > 2kft. There is potential for IFR cigs at all
sites between 10-14Z, but wind speeds should be strong enough to
preclude any BR or vis restrictions. Cigs will return to VFR by
the afternoon as diurnal heating scatters out the cloud deck.
South to southeasterly winds will prevail with speeds generally
around 15 mph and occasionally gusting higher. There is low
potential for showers and storms at the eastern D10 sites this
morning, but the majority of the storms should remain to the
east. Have kept out a mention of VCTS for now as probabilities are
low.

Another round of MVFR stratus is expected after 06Z Wednesday, and
will be further introduced in future TAF issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  90  76  94  76 /  20  10   5   0   5
Waco                74  91  74  92  74 /  10  10  20   5   0
Paris               71  86  71  92  71 /  30  20   5   0   5
Denton              74  90  72  94  72 /  20  10   5   0   5
McKinney            74  88  73  92  73 /  20  10   5   0   5
Dallas              76  91  75  95  75 /  20  10  10   0   5
Terrell             74  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
Corsicana           76  91  75  93  75 /  10  20  10   5   0
Temple              75  92  74  93  73 /  10  10  20   5   0
Mineral Wells       74  93  73  96  73 /   5   5   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$