Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
315 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017


.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low over MS/LA which has nosed its way westward into
Central and East Texas will gradually shift south over the next
24 hours. Convection continues to develop along this weak shear
axis across mainly the southern half of the forecast area and is
moving very slowly south. The brunt of the convection for the rest
of this afternoon and evening will likely occur over the southern
third of the area where good instability still exists. Farther
north, the atmosphere is not only worked-over from overnight and
morning convection, but also is being affected by increasing
subsidence as the ridge restrengthens and the weakness in its
southeast flank shifting southwestward into South TX. That said,
there is still just enough moisture and instability left over to
include slight chance POPs into the evening hours where a few
isolated storms cannot be ruled out.

The break in the heat will be short lived due to the expectation
that the ridge will intensify over the next several days. Upper
90s will be common again on Tuesday with triple digit heat
affecting most of the forecast area during the middle and latter
part of the work week. The primary concern will quickly shift back
to the dangerous heat index values. With widespread dewpoints in
the mid 70s, we should have little problem reaching head advisory
criteria from the Metroplex northward to the Red River. We will go
ahead an issue a heat advisory with this package for Tuesday and
Wednesday for this area. Conditions will become even more
unbearable Thursday and Friday as high temperatures climb a few
more degrees. The heat advisory will no doubt need to be extended
through Friday at some point, but will also need to be expanded as
the 105+ heat indices affect a much larger portion of the forecast
area. There is some indication that these readings will exceed 110
in some spots, so an excessive heat warning during the Thursday-
Friday timeframe is not out of the question. Will look more into
this possibility as we head through the first half of the work
week.

The upper ridge will begin shifting back to the west on Friday,
putting North and Central Texas beneath a northerly flow aloft
regime once again. This opens up the possibility of having
thunderstorm complexes in the Plains to march south and bring some
relief in the form of showers and storms this weekend. At the
very least, the deep north flow would likely usher in some
slightly cooler and drier air as the weekend arrives.


30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/
VFR at all TAF sites through Tuesday with a south to southeast
wind generally less than 12 knots.

The best chance of storms today will be generally south of the
Metroplex TAF sites due to large scale subsidence behind the
morning complex of storms. Therefore, we will mention showers and
storms in the vicinity of ACT through the afternoon, with the best
thunderstorm chances during the hottest part of the day. Since
thunderstorm chances will be much lower at the Metro sites we will
not include in this TAF package. Any storms that do develop this
afternoon should move south of region this evening.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79 100  81 101  81 /  30  10   5   5   5
Waco                75 101  78  99  78 /  30  10   5   5   5
Paris               73  95  75  97  77 /  20  10   5   5   5
Denton              76 100  78 100  80 /  30  10   5   5   5
McKinney            75  99  78  99  79 /  30  10   5   5   5
Dallas              79 101  81 101  82 /  30  10   5   5   5
Terrell             75 100  77  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
Corsicana           75 100  77  98  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
Temple              75 100  77  99  77 /  20  10   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       74 101  77 101  77 /  30  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/79



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