Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281023
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
523 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
A weakening cluster of thunderstorms continues to move eastward
across the I-20/I-30 corridors from Dallas and Rockwall, east
through an area from Paris to Emory this morning. We have gone
ahead and canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, as veering and
weakening of the 925mb LLJ continues through sunrise. In addition,
the better lift is shifting east of the area with the departure of
a strong shortwave disturbance currently moving over the Ark-La-
Tex early this morning. At the surface, outflow from the storm
complex is beginning to stall around or just south of the I-20
corridor. The true surface cold front was farther back to the
northwest and moving into areas well west of I-35/35W corridor.
The front should continue it`s progressive southeast movement
this morning, before it loses upper support with strong afternoon
heating slowing it down and likely stalling it across our far
south-southeast counties this afternoon.

For the morning hours, look for best convective chances to
continue across our far east-central counties in vicinity of any
lingering mid-level ascent and near the stalling outflow
boundary. Though a few strong storms with small hail and brief
heavy rainfall are possible, the severe weather threat is expected
to be non-existent as 925mb flow continues to veer and weaken
after sunrise. More scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop in the vicinity of the the stalling surface front south
of I-20/I-30 corridors. Strong daytime heating will result in high
instability with another shortwave disturbance providing lift.
Strong to severe storms are expected once again with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary threats.

05/26

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1133 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/
/6Z TAFS/

No major changes to the latest TAF forecast. We continue to
monitor a cluster of thunderstorms across southern Oklahoma that
will initially make slow southward progress. As the cold front
catches up to these storms, we should see increased southern
momentum. All of the short term guidance continues to show a
weakening trend as these storms move into North Texas, primarily
the result of increased capping. Nonetheless, we`ll still keep the
VCTS in the latest TAFs for all of the Metroplex sites between
10-13Z. If the storms do maintain their intensity a little
farther south than currently expected, then amendments will be
required.

Outside of the convection, VFR cigs will prevail initially with
MVFR cigs developing behind the cold front early Sunday morning.
MVFR cigs will persist into the early afternoon hours before
lifting.

At Waco, tonight`s convection is unlikely to survive that far
south, but new thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
cold front during the day Sunday. Will continue with a few hours
of VCTS between 17-20Z to account for this. Otherwise, some MVFR
cigs should spread northward into the area over the next couple of
hours. Similar to farther north, MVFR cigs will prevail behind the
front until about mid-afternoon.

Dunn


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/
Complex of severe thunderstorms is ongoing along the southward-
sinking cold front this morning. This activity has shown some
weakening trends in the past hour and this should continue as it
moves farther south. The cold front has undercut this convection
and outflow has surged out ahead, but it will continue to feed on
the elevated instability present with steep lapse rates in the
700-500mb layer. As a result, all convection is expected to fall
below severe limits by sunrise, but remaining thunderstorms will
be capable of gusty winds and small hail as the remnants of the
complex sink towards Hwy 380 and eventually I-20. Due to cell
training with storm motion roughly parallel to the cold front,
some localized flooding will also be possible in the next few
hours.

The cold front will continue to push southward today, resulting
in additional isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout
the afternoon hours. Later this afternoon and evening, the front
should be positioned across Central TX where it is expected to
slow down and eventually stall. This boundary should be capable of
initiating additional strong or severe storms across Central
Texas after 3 PM today and continuing into the evening. The severe
potential will arise mostly from the ample instability as wind
shear will be lacking. The 20-30 kts of shear will be sufficient
for a multicellular storm mode which could produce some pulse
severe hail and downburst winds. Without sufficient shear for
stronger rotating updrafts, the potential for large hail won`t be
very high. Areas across North TX should remain mostly dry during
this time, but have left a storm mention with a 10% PoP as there
will still be plenty of elevated instability; any weak ascent from
the upstream trough would be capable of generating an isolated
storm or two.

Some noteworthy height falls will overspread the frontal zone late
this evening and overnight which should result in an uptick in
broad rain and thunderstorm activity mostly across Central TX
overnight into Monday morning. Severe storms aren`t expected
during this time frame, but rather more of a broad rain shield
with embedded storms along and north of the frontal zone as weak
isentropic ascent occurs. There should a downward trend in
convection on Monday with only lingering rain chances across our
far southeastern zones without much ascent available.

The remainder of the week will be active with chances for showers
or storms each day. At this point, the highest chances will be on
Thursday and Friday with a lower potential on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Activity will mostly be diurnally driven with
instability maximized in the afternoon each day. Several weak
upper disturbances will move through the Southern Plains
throughout this time which will be capable of generating
scattered showers and storms. Shear will be minimal during this
time and a diffuse upper pattern without any focusing surface
boundaries will mean the potential for any organized severe
weather is very low. However, there could be a couple strong
storms throughout the week just due to the instability profiles.
We`ll likely remain active into next weekend with broad upper
troughing continuing across the western US. We may get another
cold front and a higher potential for more organized storms next
Saturday or Sunday as a trough sharpens and deepens to our west.

-Stalley

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  68  87  67  87 /  40  10  10  10  20
Waco                89  67  84  65  86 /  50  40  40  20  20
Paris               84  64  84  63  85 /  40  10  10   5  20
Denton              85  63  87  62  88 /  20  10  10   5  10
McKinney            84  65  85  63  86 /  40  10  10  10  20
Dallas              86  69  87  68  87 /  50  10  10  10  20
Terrell             84  67  84  65  85 /  60  20  20  10  20
Corsicana           87  68  83  67  84 /  50  40  40  20  20
Temple              90  67  83  66  85 /  60  50  40  30  30
Mineral Wells       84  61  86  61  87 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

/05


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