Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201708
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...
A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS/STRATOCU LIFTING NORTH FROM CENTRAL TX
APPEARS TO BE ERODING ON THE NORTH EDGE AS IT ENTERS THE DALLAS-
FORT WORTH AREA. STILL...MVFR CIGS HAVE JUST RECENTLY REACHED
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z OR SO...CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
VFR RANGE AND MAY POSSIBLY MIX OUT AND BECOME SCATTERED...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BELIEF IS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT CIGS TO AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE AREA VFR
FOR THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING PERIOD.

KACT...
LOWER-END MVFR CIGS PERSIST OVER THE WACO AREA AND WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SIMILARLY
INDICATE CIGS LIFTING INTO VFR RANGE AROUND 21Z. WILL ALSO
INDICATE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS FROM 12Z UNTIL 15Z ON MONDAY PER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

30

&&

.UPDATE...

RAN A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SURGE OF LOW
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OBSERVED FROM WESTERN BELL COUNTY NORTH TO STEPHENVILLE THIS
MORNING. CLOUD HEIGHTS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 3 TO 6 HUNDRED FOOT
RANGE WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR MID TO LATE JULY. THIS ZONE OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY REPRESENTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS THAT RESULTED IN 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RECORD SETTING OR
TYING LOW TEMPERATURES AT DFW AIRPORT. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BECAUSE THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING/MIXING
OUT. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
METROPLEX AROUND NOON. THE CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER
BECAUSE THE DFW AREA HAS ALREADY HEATED UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S AS OF 10 AM. THE CLOUD COVER HERE MAY KEEP US A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED...BUT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES
ARE STILL EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK THAT BROUGHT MUCH OF THE REGION YET
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY HAS
CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT GONE BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW
STRATUS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
THESE CLOUDS ARE THINNER AND SHOULD MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MUCH MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TODAY WHICH MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S
IN THE WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE EAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BECOME A PERMANENT AND DOMINANT FEATURE
IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PERSISTING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. SINCE THIS HIGH WILL NOT BE
CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS...OUR HEAT WILL NOT GET OUT OF
HAND...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS WILL WARM PRETTY RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WHEN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CAN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED JET
MAX WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
WHICH LIKELY REPRESENTS THE BEST TIME FRAME THAT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY COULD ARRIVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ANY INCREASE
IN UPWARD FORCING WOULD ASSIST IN ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND
THEREFORE WILL SHOW 20 POPS THERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH MEANS WE LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RIPPLES OF ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH. HOWEVER
BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH RAISES THE PROBABILITY THAT THE TAIL END
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
SHOT AT ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  74  97  76  99 /   0   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              91  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             85  67  94  71  95 /   0   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            91  69  96  72  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          88  68  96  71  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            91  74  97  77  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           89  71  96  74  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  95  74  97 /   0   0   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  72  96  74  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  97  72  98 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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