Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 171822 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

/18Z TAFs/

The persistence forecast will continue: VFR with south flow.

A meager low-level jet will attempt to saturate the top of the
nocturnal boundary layer, but any MVFR ceilings will be brief.
This may need to be addressed with a TEMPO at Waco, but it is too
early to introduce that. The flow aloft will become more zonal on
Monday, but the boundary layer moisture (850mb and below) will
remain well capped by extraordinarily dry mid-level air.



.UPDATE... /Issued 1039 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/
No major changes to the current forecast. A cold front is draped
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma this morning and
extends southward into northwest Texas. This boundary will likely
not make much more additional southward progress through the day
but will serve as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Most of this activity will remain well to the north and west of
our area, but the proximity of an upper level jet streak and at
least some weak forcing for ascent could result in some isolated
thunderstorms across our extreme northwest counties (mainly from
Graham to Bowie) during peak heating. Otherwise, no significant
changes to PoPs and temperatures elsewhere across the area. It
will continue to be hot with highs in the low to mid 90s areawide.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

A near repeat of yesterday is expected today as the upper level
ridge remains positioned to our southeast, but extends across the
region. Temperatures will again be above normal in the 90s under
mostly clear skies. Some morning stratus will occur again this
morning across Central Texas, and a some high level clouds will
continue across mainly our northwestern third.

Southwest flow aloft will continue to our west on the outer
fringes of a large scale trough across the western half of the
country. Water vapor satellite imagery shows moisture from TS
Norma, currently near Baja California, is being picked up in the
southwest flow and transported across Texas and into Oklahoma.
Most of this moisture is traveling across the western half of the
state where better chances for rain will continue today. However,
some of this convective activity could clip our northwestern
counties and have included a 20 PoP for today and tonight mainly
along and northwest of an Eastland to Weatherford to Sherman line.
Severe weather is not expected but gusty outflow winds may occur.

Temperatures overnight will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with
some stratus returning across portions of Central Texas early
Monday morning.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing north of the Red River
Monday morning as weak disturbance moves east across the Southern
Plains. This activity will move fairly quickly off to the east
and should remain north of North Texas. Light onshore winds over
Southeast Texas are expected Monday, which conducive for a
seabreeze circulation, and have included slight chance POPs across
the southeast counties Monday afternoon for any of these storms
that make it this far north.

A strong shortwave trough will swing east from the Northwest CONUS
towards the Northern Plains on Monday night and Tuesday. Lee-side
troughing will intensify as a result, which will increase the
southerly flow across the Plains and draw Gulf moisture northward
across North and Central Texas. The higher PWATs will be located
over the eastern third of the region on Tuesday, where slight
chance POPs are warranted due to the possibility of isolated
diurnal convection. Severe weather is not expected, but
instability will be sufficient for a few strong storms with gusty
winds. Activity should die off quickly around sunset with the
loss of surface heating.

The strong shortwave to the north will force a cold front
southeast across Northwest Texas Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Isolated convection will be possible across the far northwest
counties on Wednesday as the boundary gets close, but the lack of
any upper level support will preclude higher chances of showers
and storms. The front will lift back to the north Wednesday
night and Thursday as another strong shortwave drops out of the
Pacific Northwest and digs south across the Great Basin.

This piece of energy will take a more southerly route than the
previous shortwave and will cause an upper trough to deepen
significantly over the Intermountain West. The result will
essentially be a more amplified version of the current upper level
pattern, with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a strong
ridge across the east for the end of the workweek. Plenty of
moisture will be in place across the area during this time, but
the better forcing will remain to our northwest. Because of this
fact and also also because of the lack of any surface focus for
convection, any POPs will remain in the slight chance category
Thursday through Saturday.

The upper trough will finally move east late Saturday and Sunday.
Upper level forcing associated with the trough will increase from
the west, while a cold front moves in from the northwest late in
the weekend. Rain chances will increase from west to east Late
next Sunday into next Monday as the upper trough and cold front
move slowly and steadily through the Plains. It is still a ways
out there, but hopefully the front will bring some cooler to North
and Central Texas during the first official week of Fall.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  74  95  75  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
Waco                95  74  94  74  95 /   0   5   5   5  10
Paris               91  71  92  71  91 /   5   5  10   5  20
Denton              93  72  95  73  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
McKinney            92  71  93  72  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
Dallas              95  75  95  76  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
Terrell             92  71  93  73  93 /   5   5   5   5  20
Corsicana           92  73  93  73  94 /   0   0  10   5  20
Temple              92  74  93  73  94 /   0   5  10   5  10
Mineral Wells       95  69  94  71  95 /  20  10   5   5  10




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