Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280757
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN UNUSUAL AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY SUMMER...A STRONG UPPER
HIGH IN THE WEST AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WILL
KEEP THE REGION AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CHANCE POPS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOWN
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. 1-6KM SHEAR WILL BE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD BUT CAPE WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE
DOWNBURST WINDS.

THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME MORE CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE HINTED AT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WORKING DOWN INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. TONIGHT/S GFS RUN DOES PUSH A FRONT INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT THEN LIFTS IT BACK NORTH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF MODEL NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DO PRODUCE CONVECTION AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE RED RIVER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
20-30 POPS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF GRAHAM TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES BEING ALONG THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES.

AFTER TODAY...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL CREEP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER PART OF JUNE. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA
AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS FILTERED IN ON NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF
KACT AS OF MIDNIGHT. WITH NO UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT TO AID
IN LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THINK THAT KACT WILL REMAIN
DRY ALL NIGHT...BUT WILL WATCH FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS
OR STORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT ALL NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  72  94  74  93 /   0   5  10  20  10
WACO, TX              91  70  93  72  91 /  10   5  20  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  92  71  90 /   0   5  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            90  68  94  72  92 /   0   5  10  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  68  93  72  92 /   0   5  10  20  10
DALLAS, TX            92  74  94  75  93 /   0   5  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  70  93  73  91 /   0   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         91  71  93  72  91 /  10   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            91  70  93  71  90 /  20  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  67  94  70  93 /   0   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/75


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