Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230344 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
944 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017


.UPDATE...
A surface high will move across the region tonight. This will
result in light winds across the region. These light winds along
with mostly clear skies will allow for a good temperature
contrast across the region tonight. Lows will be mostly in the
30s, but some of the normally colder spots will reach the upper
20s.

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 542 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
VFR conditions will persist at all of the North and Central
Texas TAF sites through 06z Friday. As a surface ridge transits
the region tonight, northwest winds around 8 knots at 23z will
become light westerly later this evening and light southwesterly
overnight tonight. Winds will become southerly at around 8 knots
by 15z Thursday. Only scattered high clouds are expected.

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&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 307 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
/Tonight/
Surface high pressure will build south over the region
tonight and result in decreasing wind speeds. The light wind
coupled with dry air and a mostly clear sky will promote rapid
cooling after sunset. Overnight lows will have no problem falling
into the 30s across the entire forecast area with multiple spots
reaching freezing before sunrise.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
/Thanksgiving Day Onward/

Warm and dry weather will prevail through much of the extended
forecast with little/no chance for rain until the middle of next
week. After a cold start Thanksgiving morning with temperatures
near freezing, the dry air in place will allow temperatures to
warm quickly with diabatic heating along with a return to light
southerly winds. During the afternoon, a weak front will approach
our northwestern zones, but won`t have much of a noticeable effect
other than to veer the wind direction slightly. South winds will
continue on Friday with a strong upper ridge positioned to our
west, keeping us in northwest flow aloft. With stronger warm
advection, the warming trend will continue and some areas may
reach 80+ degrees Friday afternoon.

Late Friday night and Saturday morning, another weak cold front
will be pulled into the forecast area. While cold air behind the
front will be limited, it will be sufficient to at least knock
temperatures down 5-10 degrees (although they`ll remain above
normal through the weekend). With little/no moisture available,
the frontal passage will be dry with no rain chances over the
weekend. Light south winds will resume on Sunday with the upper
ridge still dominating the southwestern US. As a result,
temperatures will slowly warm through Sunday and Monday with dry
conditions continuing.

Extended guidance suggests a breakdown of the ridge beginning on
Tuesday with strong height falls overspreading much of the
Southern and Central Plains. This should allow a stronger cold
front to move into the area sometime next Tuesday or Wednesday.
The ECMWF has deepened/slowed the progression of this system from
previous runs which now delays the front`s arrival until late
Wednesday, while the operational GFS is 24-30 hours faster with a
progressive open wave aloft. Ensemble members are also all over
the map for the large-scale pattern through the middle of next
week, so have basically split the difference on timing for now.
When this frontal passage does occur, there could actually be some
rain showers associated with it after a few days of south flow
finally returns some modest moisture to the area. Have continued
low PoPs beginning Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday
morning for areas near/east of I-35.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  68  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                29  69  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               32  63  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              30  70  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            30  67  42  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              38  68  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             32  67  41  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           33  65  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              32  70  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       34  75  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58



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