791
FXUS65 KABQ 151124 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hotter temperatures and dry weather return Father`s Day weekend as
high pressure moves over the region. Southwest winds pick up Sunday
with the breeziest winds expected Monday and Tuesday as a storm
system moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Moisture increases across eastern NM behind a backdoor front
Wednesday resulting in the return of shower and storm chances during
the afternoon and evening. These storms look to bring a gusty east
canyon wind to Albuquerque Wednesday evening and spread moisture
west to the Arizona border come Thursday. This higher moisture will
bring diurnal chances for shower and storms favoring the higher
terrain late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The Pacific trough is pulling east away from NM and will be replaced
with a shortwave ridge today that will slowly transition across the
region through Sunday. Pressure heights will be on the uptrend,
bringing warming with temperatures climbing above normal areawide by
Sunday. A Heat Advisory will likely be required for Chaves County on
Sunday and may be needed in the middle RGV as well. PWATs will trend
down as a drier airmass overtakes the area through Sunday, but
sufficient moisture and instability will persist across eastern NM
for isolated late day showers or storms this afternoon. 00Z model
solutions hold on to a capping inversion and too much CIN for more
significant convective development, especially on Sunday. If the
capping inversion were to break on Sunday, severe storms would be
possible closer to the TX border. Breezy conditions will develop
Sunday afternoon as winds in the lower boundary layer respond to an
upper level trough/low moving from the Pacific NW toward the Great
Basin.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Southwest upper level winds increase across the region Monday and
Tuesday due to an upper level trough moving across the Pacific NW
and northern Rockies. Hot temperatures and deep daytime mixing will
allow these stronger winds to mix down to the surface with breezy
conditions areawide. The strongest winds of 20 to 35 mph during the
afternoon will be across west central NM and the northeast highlands
and plains. This southwesterly flow will help to mix out the dryline
and the higher moisture across the eastern plains east of the
boundary Sunday night and Monday night into West Texas by midday
resulting in near zero shower and storm chances. Temperatures will
be near average across western NM due to the slightly lower upper
level heights compared to this weekend while around 5 to 10 degrees
above average along and east of the central mountain chain due to
the downsloping southwest winds. Roswell might need heat advisories
Monday and Tuesday due to temperatures around 105 both days and a
major heat risk. Moderate heat risk will exist across the middle and
lower RGV and eastern NM Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper level trough exits northeast to the northern Great
Plains Wednesday morning, it will send a weak backdoor front into
far northeast NM.  Additionally, the western flank of upper level
high pressure over the southern US will expand westward helping to
increase southeast return flow of higher moisture across eastern NM.
With PWATs increasing to around an inch, this will set the stage for
some showers and storms across eastern NM during the afternoon and
evening hours with areas along and west of the central mountain
chain remaining dry to PWATs below 0.4 inches. The outflow from
storms across eastern NM will help send an east canyon wind to the
ABQ and Santa Fe Metros Wednesday evening as well as push higher
moisture as far west as the Arizona border come Thursday morning.
This will also be assisted by the western flank of upper level high
pressure moving further west over the desert SW. Beginning Thursday,
diurnal showers and storms will favor the higher terrain, thanks to
the higher moisture, spreading to lower elevations come the late
afternoon and evening hours. Some deeper moisture could also move
across southern areas due to a tropical wave moving west across
Mexico. Temperatures late week will be near average for western and
central NM and slightly below normal across eastern NM. A new upper
level high center looks to become established over the desert SW
come next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
potential short-lived MVFR conditions in patches of low
stratus/fog across eastern NM this morning. A few showers or
isolated storms will impact eastern NM this afternoon, but are not
forecast to hit TAF sites. Otherwise, winds will be mostly light
through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

An upper level ridge will strengthen and shift east across the
region through Sunday, bringing the return of hot, dry and unstable
conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
western NM by Sunday as southwest winds trend up with an upper level
trough/low moving southeast from the Pacific NW to the Great Basin.
Stronger southwest winds will materialize Monday, bringing the
potential for critical fire weather conditions, as the upper level
trough/low continues moving east toward the northern/central
Rockies. The main threat area on Monday will be along/west of the
central mountain chain and especially west of the Continental
Divide, where ERCs are highest. Winds will trend down Tuesday as the
upper level trough ejects out of the Rockies, but hot, dry and
unstable conditons will persist. Humidity will trend up from mid to
late week and winds will trend down as an upper level high builds
west into NM and moisture come in from the Gulf and behind a
backdoor front. The result will be increasing chances for wetting
storms from Wed through Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  56  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  87  43  90  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  86  53  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  92  48  93  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  86  52  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  90  49  93  48 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  89  54  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  89  62  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  87  58  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  94  48  93  47 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  98  62  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  81  45  84  45 /  10   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  84  62  89  61 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  86  55  90  57 /  10   5   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  80  47  85  49 /  10   5   5   0
Red River.......................  73  44  77  46 /  20  10   5   0
Angel Fire......................  78  37  82  41 /  20  10   5   0
Taos............................  85  49  91  50 /  10   5   0   0
Mora............................  83  49  87  51 /  20  10   5   0
Espanola........................  92  57  96  58 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  86  60  92  60 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  90  58  95  58 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  67  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  65  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  64 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  65  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  96  60 100  60 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  94  64 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  95  59 100  60 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  95  62 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  95  59 100  60 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  91  65  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  94  65  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  98  67 102  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  88  61  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  88  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  52  95  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  84  56  90  56 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  88  58  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  89  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  93  66  96  65 /   5   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  86  60  89  60 /  20  10   5   0
Capulin.........................  84  55  89  58 /  20  20  10   0
Raton...........................  87  52  93  55 /  20  20   5   0
Springer........................  89  53  95  55 /  20  10  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  84  54  90  55 /  10  10   5   0
Clayton.........................  88  62  95  66 /   5  10  10   0
Roy.............................  85  59  92  61 /  10  10  10   5
Conchas.........................  93  63  99  66 /   5  10  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  90  62  97  63 /   5  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  92  63  99  67 /  10  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  92  65  97  67 /  20  20  10   5
Portales........................  93  66  98  68 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  93  66 100  68 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell......................... 100  70 105  71 /   5   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  94  63  99  63 /  10   5   5   0
Elk.............................  94  61  96  61 /  20   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11