720
FXUS64 KTSA 072326
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Scattered clouds this afternoon will gradually increase heading into
the evening in advance of a weak shortwave trough. A few weak
showers could move into the after from the west this afternoon.
More numerous showers and storms will develop in western OK and
KS this evening, working their way east into the area overnight.
Most of the storm activity will focus along the KS and MO borders,
with Pops of 20-30% there, and lower to the south. The main
impacts will be brief heavy rain and gusty winds. The main
limiting factors will be the dry lower levels and limited
instability. Low temperatures tonight will be mild, mainly in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A boundary will sit north of the area Saturday with breezy southerly
flow bringing very warm and humid air into the area. High
temperatures Saturday will jump into the 90s, with some areas as
warm as the upper 90s. Low level moisture will be excessive, with
the 925 hPa specific humidity near the 99th percentile for the
date. Dew points in the low to perhaps mid 70s will result in heat
indices nearing or exceeding 100F for much of the area.

MCS activity will force the boundary into the area Sunday with
a 20-50% chance of rain. As the boundary moves in, model soundings
show too much warm and dry air above the surface layer for surface
based convective initiation. This means any precipitation that
does develop will rely on the more marginal elevated instability,
making it less certain as to whether any meaningful rain or
thunder will occur. Cooler and somewhat drier air will move in
behind the boundary with highs falling into the upper 70s Monday.
This boundary will then lift back north by Tuesday. This will
bring one more chance of rain to the area, focusing south of I-40.
Model guidance does not agree on the specifics of this
progression, with uncertainties with respect to the amount of dry
air intrusion and the location and intensity of precipitation that
develops Monday- Tuesday. Notably, most of the cooler and wetter
solutions are from the GEFS model suite, but not all. Accordingly,
did not stray far from the NBM.

Ensemble guidance is in better agreement for the middle to end of
next week with strong high pressure building over and west of the
area. Cluster analysis still shows some ensemble variability, with
the GEFS mostly showing less amplified solutions while the EPS and
CMCE are split with respect to a more amplified ridge across the
west or northern Plains. Either way, this will cause another period
of hot and humid weather with limited rain possibilities for the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Isolated showers have developed across far northeast Oklahoma
early this evening, but are not expected to impact any TAF sites
in the short term. Additional showers/thunderstorms, that are
developing to the west, will begin to approach portions of
far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas after midnight. Given
the limited coverage expected, PROB30 groups were only included at
KBVO/KXNA/KROG. A few lingering showers will be possible Saturday
morning with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the
forecast period with gusty south winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  96  72  86 /  20  20  10  40
FSM   71  96  73  92 /  10  20   0  20
MLC   75  94  74  91 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   73  96  69  82 /  20  20  30  40
FYV   71  93  70  85 /  20  20  10  50
BYV   69  92  69  80 /  20  30  20  60
MKO   74  94  72  87 /  10  20  10  30
MIO   72  91  69  79 /  30  20  40  60
F10   74  94  72  88 /  10  20   0  30
HHW   71  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12