465
FXUS62 KTAE 071733
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1233 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- There is a 50% chance of 2 inches or more of beneficial rain
  today along the Forgotten Coast and Southeast FL Big Bend.

- There is a low chance (30%) of dense fog on Monday morning for
  points across Florida and far south Georgia.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect west of the Ochlockonee
  River from late tonight/early Monday morning and continuing
  into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A chilly and wet weekend continues as one or more areas of low
pressure ripple along a stalled front to our south over the Gulf.
The upside is that we`re getting much needed rain. Additional
rain through tonight of 1-2 inches is expected from a Valdosta-
Tallahassee-Panama City line southeast. There is a 50% chance
of 2 inches or more of rainfall along the Forgotten Coast and
Southeast FL Big Bend, where a reasonable worst case scenario is
3 to 4 inches of rainfall. Strong thunderstorms are expected
to remain over the Gulf, with a low probability of gusty storm
making it ashore in Dixie County. Patchy fog will be around
this morning, but will be more widespread to the northwest of a
Fitzgerald - Albany - Dothan line, where there is a 40% chance
of dense fog. Additional fog is possible Monday morning. On
Monday, lingering showers mainly across eastern areas in the
morning, with gradual clearing from west to east. It will be
breezy with northwest winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph, which
remains closer to the 90th percentile of the guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

It turns chilly Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with lows dipping
down into the lower 30s to lower 40s. A warming trend will take
hold by Wednesday as high temps return closer to normal, with dry
weather expected into Thursday. A strong cold frontal passage is
progged on Friday with a chance of showers; thunderstorm chances
may be limited by a lack of moist return in advance of the front.
A cold air mass moves into the eastern CONUS in the wake of the
front, the southward extent of which remains uncertain at this
time, with a large spread in ensemble temperature solutions next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Generally IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys will continue through much of the
TAF period. Expansive shield of light to moderate rain will
continue moving northeast from the Gulf this afternoon. This
rainfall will gradually shift south and east through the afternoon,
with rain diminishing later this afternoon or early evening from
west to east. Overnight, patchy to areas of fog are expected at
all terminals with the recent rains and light winds. A cold front
will move through the area overnight into Monday morning with
winds switching from the northeast to northwest behind the front.
Some light rain may accompany the front as it passes by but probs
are low. cigs/vsbys will gradually improve Monday morning though
mainly just to high IFR or MVFR by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A Gulf low will lead to fresh breezes today in the 15 to 20 knot
range over much of the coastal waters along with seas building to
3 to 4 feet over the waters to the west of the Ochlockonee River.
Thunderstorms will also be possible today just offshore, leading
to briefly higher winds and seas, along with the potential for
waterspouts. A cold frontal passage tonight clocks winds around
to the north, increasing to advisory levels late tonight into
early Monday morning across the coastal waters to the west of
the Ochlockonee River, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.
There is a 50% chance the advisory may need to be extended to
the east of the Ochlockonee River by Monday afternoon. Tranquil
boating conditions should return by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cloudy with Wetting rains on tap through Monday morning, then a
return to dry weather, but temperatures remain below normal until
midweek. Transport winds easterly today with lower mixing heights
contribute to low daytime dispersion areawide again today. Monday,
brisk northwest transport winds and modest mixing heights lead to
good dispersion. Tuesday, weak easterly transport winds may yield
pockets of low afternoon dispersion. Dispersion concerns aside,
recent rainfall and higher RH will tend to mitigate fire weather
concerns over the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Beneficial rain expected across the region through the weekend,
as discussed in the short term section above. This may lead to
to nuisance flooding in urban and low-lying areas, but flash or
riverine flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  52  62  40 /  90  60  20   0
Panama City   64  52  63  41 /  90  30  10   0
Dothan        57  48  58  35 /  70  50   0   0
Albany        57  47  59  36 /  60  40  20   0
Valdosta      59  49  61  38 /  90  60  20   0
Cross City    65  54  68  41 /  90  80  10   0
Apalachicola  66  55  64  44 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ751-752-770-772.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     GMZ755-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF