Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 250904
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
404 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT RAPIDLY TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE WIDESPREAD BUT
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID
CLEARING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW STRATUS
LOCATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND STRETCHING BACK INTO EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER SHORTLY. MODELS ARE NOT
PICKING UP ON THIS CLOUD DECK...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRAJECTORY
OF THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THEN CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY TODAY AND VERY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER. WENT A LITTLE
COOLER IN THE EAST WITH CLOUDS LINGERING A BIT LONGER HERE...BUT IF
STRATUS DOES NOT MANAGE TO LIFT HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE QUITE
WINDY...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHWAY 14 AREA AND NEAR THE BUFFALO
RIDGE IN SW MN. EXPECT WINDS TO BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL -
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE EAST AND
LESS THAN 10 MPH WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  MODELS SHOW A FEW
WAVES DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH THERE IS NOT GREAT
AGREEMENT IN TERM OF TIMING OR LOCATION.  THE FIRST WAVE FOCUSES ON
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE THE STATE ON THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH IN OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
GREGORY COUNTY FOR THE CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER.

THE NEXT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW IF ICE
PRODUCTION CAN OCCUR.  AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR SO ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

WARMER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  HAVE WARMED HIGHS OVER GUIDANCE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT LIMITED WARMING OVER GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST AS
THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE WARMING WILL GO.

THE MOST CONSISTENT SHORTWAVE AMONGST THE MODELS IS A RELATIVELY
STRONG YET COMPACT WAVE THAT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HAVE RAISED POPS...AND KEPT PRECIP AS
RAIN.

THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PATTERN RETURNS TOWARDS WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTER HALF OF THE US
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.  WARMED FORECAST HIGHS OVER GUIDANCE ON
TUESDAY...AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG MIXING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

EXPECT LOW STRATUS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL BECOME COMMON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY...SO LOWERED CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS
AT THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEARING
BEHIND IT. WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD WEDNESDAY OF MVFR STRATOCU IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD


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