Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 040813
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
313 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE 24 HOURS ON THE WAY...WITH NO WEATHER OF
SIGNIFICANCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY...BUT ONLY TO THE
DEGREE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. BY MIDDAY...A BIT
BRISKER FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF RIDGE AXIS WILL ACT TO MIX DOWN...
PRODUCING SOME WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA.
WHILE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NUMEROUS HOURS...FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN EVEN WITH
THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EAST OF I 29...AS COOL SEASON GRASSES
HAVE ALMOST FULLY GREENED UP. WITH RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE HEART
OF THE REGION TONIGHT... WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF VERY QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES FALL DUE TO DRY AIRMASS...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE WEAKER GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. LIKELY TO FIND SOME UPPER 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A FEW WARM AND DRY DAYS AHEAD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WELL
AMPLIFIED RIDGE FLANKED BY CUT OFF LOWS ON BOTH US
COASTS...SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. WHILE THURSDAY WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES...SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FURTHER. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS/NEAR
20C...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WENT AHEAD AND
CONTINUED TREND OF FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE.

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG CAPPING WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT RATHER DIFFICULT...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THIS WILL USHER IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HOWEVER WHILE COOLER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST VERY SLOWLY WOBBLES EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND BRINGS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING AND TRACK
DETAILS OF THIS BROAD UPPER LOW...BUT ALL MODELS POINT TO A WETTER
PATTERN. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW TRACKS AS WELL
AS HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE REGION. DID NOT ALTER THE BLEND POPS AS
CHANCE WORDING SEEMS REASONABLE ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM


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