Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 070857
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
357 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY IN A
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WITH HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S. KEPT
PATCHY SMOKE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH CURRENT OBS INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD. WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TODAY WOULD SUPPORT SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...THUS GIVING US SOME HAZE IN THE SKY...THINK WE
WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN SURFACE SMOKE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
EAST THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY. THESE THOUGHTS ARE
ALSO SUPPORTED BY CURRENT AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AS THE HIGH TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP THE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. A BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT APPEARS TO STALL OUT TO OUR WEST
AND NORTH. ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWEST IOWA
COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S...WITH THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

BROAD RIDGING BEGINS STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER THE RIDGE. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAVE IN
HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE THIS WAVE. WHILE...MODELS
DO INDICATE THE STRONG RIDGING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MINIMAL...WILL LEAVE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE A FEW WAVES MAY
CLIP THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWER
90S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORE WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT IN SURFACE VISIBILITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION...SO WILL CARRY PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL HANG ONTO PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE FU/BR COMBINATION.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH



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