Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 252126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
326 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

700 MB FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  AS THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO INTENSIFY.
WITH THE SNOW INTENSIFYING AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WILL LIKELY SEE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO DE
SMET AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AS THE WAVE
SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BAND OF SNOW WILL APPROACH I-29
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY DRIVING THE ELEVATED
BOUNDARY SOUTH.

AM CAUGHT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
AREA IS IN THE LEFT FRONT OF INTENSIFYING JET STREAK ACROSS THE MID
WEST LEADING TO WEAK LIFT.  QUESTION REMAINS HOWEVER AS TO WHETHER
THIS LIFT WILL BE REALIZED AS DENDRITIC LAYER

SECOND WAVE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 00Z
SATURDAY.  THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE 750-700 MB
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A VERMILLION SD TO JACKSON
LINE.  EXPECT A QUICK 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MAIN AXIS.  WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

NO MUCH EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOWFALL ENDS EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH THE
FRESH COVER...I WOULDNT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT WITH THE HIGHS AS
MIXING WILL BE LIGHT.  SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST DAY IN QUITE A
WHILE WHERE THE SUN WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE COLDER
WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF THE COMING WEEK.  ALL
MODELS POINT TO THE TREND OF BEING MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN
LATELY.  ALSO CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION DUE TO
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING A
LITTLE ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA.

LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA AT THAT TIME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR BOTH DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES.  RIGHT NOW...I AM EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY UP FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT SO DIDN`T BOTTOM OUT LOWS.  BUT IF THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...TEMPS COULD GO QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN
THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS.  HIGHS START TO RECOVER THURSDAY AS
MODELS START TO INDICATE WARMER AIR MOVING BACK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN SNOW BAND TAKING SHAPE FROM THE SOUTHCENTRAL SD THROUGH THE
SD HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...WHICH INCLUDES KHON. EXPECT VSBYS AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST. MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SNOW AT KFSD WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOMORROW...SO
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT 10Z TONIGHT AND BECOMING PREVAILING
AT 14Z. SIMILAR THINKING WITH KSUX AS WELL WITH MAIN
RESTRICTIONS AFTER TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052-
     057.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HEITKAMP
AVIATION...HEITKAMP



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