Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 252001
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
301 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS.  ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WILL BE ELEVATED VEIL OF SMOKE
FROM FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH WINDS INCREASING...MOISTURE WILL CREEP UPWARDS WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES SHY
OF 850 HPA MIXOUT WITH ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AND A LOWER SUN
ANGLE. EXPECT SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE MAIN STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND RAIN CHANCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.   MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT CLOSER TOGETHER THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH REMAINS A NORTHERN
OUTLIER WITH SFC AND LOW-LVL CIRCULATIONS. HAVE PUT PREFERENCES
TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FORECAST DETAILS. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ACCAS SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG A NEWRD LIFTING ELEVATED
BOUNDARY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY CAPPED SFC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY...BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE LLJ
INTENSIFIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLUG OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH IT...BUMPING PWAT VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.8 INCHES BY 12AM
FRIDAY.  EVEN THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE...COULD SEE RATHER HEALTHY RAINFALL RATES WITH AN AREA OF MORE
FOCUSED HEAVIER RAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK TO
NORMAL LVLS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 12Z/26TH AS SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE A BAND OF ELEVATED SMOKE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE RIDGE SCOOTS EAST ON THE 26TH.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



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