Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 232111
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
411 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Convection associated with MCV continues to shift east across
northern Iowa, with some trailing rain and embedded thunderstorms
in the cold pool left behind. Thinking this cold pool should serve
to stabilize the area from further severe threat the remainder of
this afternoon/evening, but will maintain some higher pops across
parts of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa into the evening as
the low level jet ahead of approaching cold front could result in
some regeneration around the edge of the cold pool. This cold
front, now located from just west of Aberdeen to near Chamberlain
to just east of Valentine Nebraska per well-defined fine lines on
regional radars, will push across the forecast area through the
overnight hours, bringing drier and more benign weather to the
region for Wednesday.

Lows tonight may ultimately depend on where the cold front is
located by 12Z, but should generally range from upper 50s west to
mid-upper 60s southeast. Highs should be more uniform on Wednesday
as decent mixing warms temperatures to a few degrees either side
of 80.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Abbreviated discussion due to ongoing storm activity today. Our
forecast area situated between broad upper trough across eastern
Canada/Red River Valley and surface boundary which pushes into the
central Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday night-Thursday
night. Expect dry conditions to prevail with seasonably cool
temperatures.

For the longer range, another upper trough will swing into the
northern Plains Friday night into the first part of the weekend.
Temperatures remain on the cool side of late August normals, with
a stronger wave lifting northeast across the region sometime in
the Friday night/Saturday time frame. Still some model differences
in timing of the wave, with GFS/ECMWF favoring a slightly faster
precip threat focused on Friday night, while the GEM lags the
better chance into Saturday. What previously looked to be another
decent precip chance early next week now remains focused to our
south as a building upper ridge brings moderating temperatures
back to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

MVFR ceilings and areas of convection will be primary aviation
concerns this TAF period, primarily along and east of Interstate
29 corridor. Timing/location of favored convective chances is
uncertain, so opting toward only minimal thunder mention in KFSD
and KSUX TAFs this afternoon, with better chances focused farther
east in southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa this evening. Conditions
should improve west to east after 04Z- 06z as a cold front pushes
through the region.


&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH



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