Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 171728
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. GENERALLY...EXPECTING QUIET
CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT LIGHT QPF
SIGNATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK
DEVELOPING CU FIELD BY MID-DAY AND SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION.  WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS.

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-JUST BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION...BUT WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS ALONG WITH THE HEAT COULD LEAD TO MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL
HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS OUR WEST...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS MONDAY...WHEN
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH MID TO UPPER 90S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED
FROM CENTRAL SD INTO EASTERN ND. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH 17/00Z ECMWF PUSHING A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WHILE GFS/GEM HOLD ONTO WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
WILL STICK WITH WARMER PERSISTENCE FOR NOW...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY SMALL WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE FAVORING
AREAS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MAY
BE A PERIOD TO WATCH...DEPENDING ON WHETHER AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
MAKES A PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY JUST LOW POPS FOR
NOW...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OF
THIS BOUNDARY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM





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