Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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274
FXUS63 KAPX 271811
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
211 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No big updates needed.

Water vapor imagery reveals filling low pressure system over
eastern Ontario/western Quebec this morning. Smaller short wave
noted moving through upper Michigan within the mean upper level
trough. At the surface, secondary surface trough/cold front is in
the process of rotating down through northern Michigan with deeper
wrap around moisture/cloud cover overspreading the region from the
north. There is one small batch of showers/sprinkles along the
backside of the compact wave, dipping through central upper
Michigan.

Rest of today, cloud cover will continue to fill in/overspread
northern Michigan over the next several hours, aided by cooling
aloft/a deepening mixed layer and strong late June sunshine,
although far SE counties may remain a bit less cloudy due to
downsloping flow. Precip-wise, small wave moving through the
north along with some very modest low level instability this
afternoon may be enough to support isolated showers over the
northern half of the of the CWA this afternoon. Have added that to
the going forecast.

Finally, temps today will vary greatly from the middle 60s over
eastern upper to the middle and upper 80s in the far SE counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Troughing continues to slowly
build across the Great Lakes, and looks to continue to do so right
through the first part of this week. While most aggressive height
falls currently are occurring across Ontario, additional spokes of
energy digging on backside of building trough will help kick in
amplification across our area into Tuesday. Passage of what turned
out to be a rather benign cold front yesterday has ushered in a much
drier airmass, as evident by greater than one inch reduction in
overhead pwat values between local 12z and 00z soundings. Despite
this, still enough moisture interacting with passing vort lobes to
kick off a few light showers to our north and northwest. This trend
looks to continue today and tonight, with southward building trough
suggesting we may get in on a touch of very light rain at times
through the short term period.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
through tonight. Addressing that light shower concern.

Details: Most certain part of this forecast is that it will be a
cooler regime than recently experienced. Caa only looks to
continue and strengthen today and tonight with passage of
secondary cold front , forcing h8 temperatures to drop into the
mid and upper single digits (pretty impressive for the end of
June) by Tuesday morning. Still some "residue" warmth today,
especially in favored west/northwest downslope areas of northeast
lower Michigan. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than those experienced yesterday, with highs
likely not getting much out of the 60s for areas north of the big
bridge. Maintenance of light winds and plenty of clouds tonight
will prevent readings from getting too far out of hand. Still,
expected temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
are a few degrees below what is considered normal for the end of
June.

Addressing light shower potential is a much lower confidence
endeavor. Think current round of showers across Lake Superior and
parts of western upper Michigan will largely miss our area early
this morning. Not so sure about what happens later this morning
and afternoon as dual upstream waves drop southeast out of Canada.
Band of low and mid level clouds already associated with these,
which should slowly drop into our area today and this evening.
Some scattered light showers/sprinkles falling out of this cloud
deck at times. Can`t completely rule out the same for area later
today, although soundings show maintenance of elevated capping to
prevent any signficant diurnal contribution. With that said, that
cap is not particularly robust, and it wouldn`t take too much to
nudge a parcel past it. Any shower activity looks to remain very
light and scattered. Will go ahead and introduce some isolated
shower wording, but expecting what ever does fall will likely no
more than wet the pavement.

Better chance for light showers arrives this evening as core of main
height falls/troughing arrives. Thinking band of scattered
showers/sprinkles will drop south through the area in response. Once
again, not a big deal at all, will only very light rain totals
expected. A mostly cloudy evening does give way to clearing
pushing in from the north very late night/early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

(6/28)Tuesday...The 500 mb shortwave trough is moving out of the
forecast area, by 12z, with a really low chance for anything going
one in the morning (less than 20%). The sfc high is building into
the region during the day, and the 500 mb heights are building, so
will expect that the clouds will decrease during the day. The
evening should be mostly clear, as the sfc high has firm control
over the region.

(6/29)Wednesday...The bulk of the day time looks dry, as the high
begins to lose control over the Upper Great Lakes, and the next cold
front begins to move into the region. The evening looks dry on both
models, but it`s after 06z that the difference occurs. The GFS has a
flatter trough, with pieces of energy spinning around it, pushing
into the northern Michigan. The ECMWF has a much sharper 500 mb
trough that lags the rain back in W Upper until 12z. So have the
pops barely getting into E Upper by 12z.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...Models are consistent with the
500 mb trough that rotates through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday with the rain ending by friday afternoon as the sfc High
builds into the region. The 500 mb low north of the region moves
east and the 500 mb ridge begins to build Saturday, and continues
into Sunday for a warm dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR cloud cover has filled in across all of northern lower
Michigan and will more or less persist through the balance of the
afternoon. Upstream surface trough will drop down through the
region tonight and bring a bit deeper low level moisture/weak
forcing and may be enough to generate isolated to scattered
showers.

But otherwise, forecast soundings suggest a batch of lower (MVFR)
cigs dropping down through the region tonight as final push of
cooler air arrives. Have trended the terminal forecasts slightly
more pessimistic, showing a period of MVFR cigs although forecast
confidence for those lower cigs is not high. But in any event,
thicker cloud cover continues out of the region on Tuesday and
with a return to full VFR conditions as we go through the day.

Winds: Some NW gustiness today diminishing this evening. Winds
turn more northerly later tonight through Tuesday with some
gustiness again possible Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Increasingly gusty west and eventually northwest winds today into
this evening, with winds coming around more northerly overnight.
Rather cool airmass for the season will result in somewhat more
vigorous over-water mixing, which should result in some low end
sca producing gusts later today into tonight for many of our
nearshore waters. Marginally gusty winds look to continue into
Tuesday, with some extension to headlines possibly needed.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MSB



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