RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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000 FXUS63 KAPX 101213 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 713 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 436 AM/ LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE BALANCE OF A WEEK...WITH A STRETCH OF MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ANTICIPATED...HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AJS && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 436 AM/...TODAY ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...999 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. APX RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE RADAR BEARS OUT HINTS OF ENHANCEMENT OFF OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY FROM TIME TO TIME WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO ABOUT A MILE AT TIMES AT THE CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT IN TRAVERSE CITY. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...SPECIFICALLY WHEN TO END THEM. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS AS MOISTURE/LINGERING LIFT CONTINUE TO WRAP NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE -11 TO -13 C RANGE BEFORE RISING TO BETWEEN -9 AND -11 C BY 15Z. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEELANAU...GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE COUNTIES DUE TO NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THROUGH NOON. IN ADDITION...WILL EXTEND ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES (ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55) THROUGH NOON AS WELL DUE TO CONTINUED SNOWFALL ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND BUT STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS (WEST OF U.S. 131). HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. SULLIVAN && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 436 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND TONIGHT...SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO BE LONG GONE AS LOW PRESSURE ZIPS OFF WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC...THOUGH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH (MEAN 850-700 MB RH 30 TO 40 PERCENT). IN ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO -7 AND -9 C THEREBY LARGELY DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNED POPS TO JUST LOW CHANCE ACROSS NORTH/NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF DAYSHIFT WERE ABLE TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES INLAND. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (MEAN 850-700 MB RH INCREASES TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT) AND SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN -9 AND -11 C. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PRODUCTION SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO LOW CHANCE IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS. HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT FORESEEN WEATHERWISE. MODELS DO HINT AT WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF BOUTS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SULLIVAN && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 436 AM/ A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN WINDS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE REMAINING ICE-FREE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY WILL SEE COASTAL CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP INTO 35 KNOTS OF FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH BEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AJS && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 658 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK AWAY TO OUR EAST TODAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN FOLLOW IN AND AROUND TRAVERSE CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR...MVRF AND VRF THIS MORNING IN VARYING INTENSITIES OF SNOW. CIGS/VSYBY WILL THEN HEAD TOWARD LOW END VRF LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AJS && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026- 031>036-041-042. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ344>346. LH...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$
