Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 300454
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1254 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BACK EDGE OF WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC PRECIP HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM
FKS TO MBL LATE THIS EVENING. MOST PRECIP HAS BEEN OF THE FROZEN
VARIETY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME RAIN AND SLEET MIXED IN FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINES AND LOWER ELEVATION.
MOST OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN HAS RECEIVED AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION SINCE THE PRECIP BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. ERN UPR
MICHIGAN...WHERE A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT...HAS
RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU AND DEEP MOISTURE EXITS
EAST OUT OF OUR CWA. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE UNDER AN INCH. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 30 KTS...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW.
WILL LET THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF RAPIDLY DIMINISHING POPS WITH FROPA AND MINOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT/SOME MIXED PRECIP EARLY IN SPOTS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PERIODS OF SNOW EARLY WITH SOME
HEAVIER BURSTS. GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/
EASTERN IOWA.  SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN GIVEN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS MICHIGAN A BOOST THIS AFTERNOON...
LEADING EDGE OF MOSTLY SNOW WAS DRIVEN BY AN ELONGATED VORTICITY
AXIS AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE.  INITIAL SNOW BAND WAS FAIRLY NARROW
BUT AS FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS REACHED THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIP BAND HAVE BEEN GETTING A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF RADAR
RETURNS.  SOME DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  PRECIP HAS BEEN
FALLING MOSTLY AS SNOW AFTER A VERY BRIEF START AS RAIN...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER SO MORE
LIKELY THAT AS PRECIP MOVES EAST OF M-65 MAY SEE MORE LIQUID THERE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE
HEELS OF THE FIRST OVER MINNESOTA.

OCCLUDED FRONT AND DRIVING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING
IN MONDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION.  WINDS.

TONIGHT...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION
PRECIP SLIDES IN.  PRECIP TYPE MAY WAFFLE BACK TOWARD LIQUID ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER WITH SOME THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING THROUGH.  IN GENERAL BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION/"IMPACTS" OCCURRING NOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER PORTION OF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AND WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED PLAN TO DROP THIS PORTION OF THE HEADLINE AND KEEP IT GOING
FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WHERE SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
PERSISTENT.  NORTHERN LOWER IMPACTS BETTER COVERED BY A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE THEY ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THE AREA COVERED BY
ADVISORY ANYHOW.  SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
FORCING PULLS EAST...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.

WILL ALSO LET THE WIND ADVISORY DROP INSTEAD OF WAITING UNTIL 22Z AS
WIND GUSTS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND WERE STRONGEST WITH THE PRECIP
BAND AND ASSOCIATED EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SLOW WARMING TREND...

IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE MILDER BUT STILL COOL VERSUS "NORMALS" FOR
LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WARMING IS FINALLY
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND HOW WARM IT WILL TURN ON WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE MORNING
POSSIBLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TURNING MILDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ECMWF PRETTY MUCH MISSES US TO THE
SOUTH...NAM BULLSEYES NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN. HAVE TAKEN THE MODEL BLEND APPROACH AND BACKED DOWN A
BIT ON POPS...PUSHING THEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS ALSO A TOUGH CALL AS WELL WITH RAIN OR SNOW STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH ANYTHING FALLING LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES (BUT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED).
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN
THE ACTION OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
MUCH MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD AND INTO
THE 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY...FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW MOVING
THROUGH ONTARIO. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUSLY NOTED SOUTHWARD TREND OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOME GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED...FAVORING A DRY SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY. STILL A SHOT FOR
SOME WEEKEND PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
BE PASSING TO THE NORTH...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO GET DETAILS
NAILED DOWN. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
HOW WARM DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...AND HOW MUCH
TIME WE CAN SPEND IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 12Z...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WINDS NORTHWEST G25KTS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING ON MONDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES. NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AT TVC/MBL TOWARD 06Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR


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