Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 022303
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
703 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE IS A
LIGHTNING THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE HAVE DECENT
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM) AND SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH WIND FIELDS
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30 TO 35 KNOTS). SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO DECOUPLE. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH ONE MORE
PRECIPITATION-FREE DAY BEFORE OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WARM FRONT FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS MARCH
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY STORMS THURSDAY MORNING.
IF...AND IT/S A BIG IF FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
MORNING CONVECTION DEPARTS FAR ENOUGH EAST AND REMNANT CLOUD COVER
DIMINISHES...SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT FROM SAID LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MOST FAVORABLE AREA WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE
MOST DIURNAL HEATING WOULD BE NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS AREA ALSO CORRELATES WELL WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF NEARLY 50 KTS...0-3KM HELICITY NEAR 400
M^2/S^2...AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS...AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE FAVORABLE IF AFOREMENTIONED
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES BY THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN
THREATS IN ANY STORM WOULD BE WIND AND HAIL...WITH CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES IN ANY SUPERCELL THAT DOES DEVELOP. OTHER SCENARIO: IF
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES LATE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THEN WE WILL JUST
SEE RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE... LIMITING ANY
REAL ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY. AS THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE UPPER PENINSULA...LOWER 70S OVER
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NEAR 80 OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AS THIS WILL BE THE LAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SAID COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
DEPART EAST.

REST OF PERIOD...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PRODUCING COOLER AND
PRECIPITATION-FREE DAYS. MODELS AGREE OF A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...BUT SPECIFICS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AS TIMING AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CONFIDENT...THIS
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU 00Z THURSDAY THANKS TO SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...AS





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