Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Issued at 1013 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Somewhat dirty ridge axis extends from the central Appalachians to
the western lakes. Abundant low-level moisture is stuck under, and
especially just east of, this ridge. 12Z APX sounding was
saturated up thru 820mb, even above an initial inversion at
855mb. Drizzle was falling at the time of the sounding, and that
has been coming and going in waves this morning.

However, some improvement is underway. Partial clearing has worked
into the Straits area and much of eastern upper MI, and some
breaks are also noted in nw lower MI (from Leelanau to Manistee).
A few breaks/thin spots are also seen from HTL to Mio. Note that
cu is already starting to fill in some of the holes that have
opened up.

Somewhat drier air will move into the region on w to nw 1000-850mb
winds today. (Note that 12Z GRB sounding was only moist up to
915mb.) Between that and late August diurnal heating, we will
eventually be able to seriously erode the cloud cover. It`s just
going to take most of the day in many areas, with sunshine tending
to self-destruct this morning).

Have stretched out precip chances a few more hours in the high
terrain of northern lower MI. But the overall trend for precip has
been a diminishing one.

Max temps are tricky; quite a bit of cloud cover will of course
hamper a diurnal temp rise. But we`re only calling for an 8-10f
temp rise over current readings, and that generally looks
achievable. May bump temps down a tiny bit anyways.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

...Slow clearing today...

High impact weather potential: None.

Overview: Large closed upper level ridge remains fixed along the
mid Atlantic coast. Pseudo zonal flow pattern stretches across the
northern tier of the CONUS with several embedded waves. One strong
short wave is moving through the northern lakes/Ontario region
this morning within the entrance region of a departing upper jet
streak. Attending subtle surface low analyzed across Upper
Michigan this morning with a subtle cold front/trough crossing the
region. This feature managed to spark several clusters of showers
crossing the region overnight, including a nice cluster of showers/
storms moving across central lower Michigan and into the Saginaw
Bay area early this morning.

Today: Short wave trough and attending surface low will push off
to the northeast, allowing high pressure to build across the
region through the day. Ongoing showers/thunder should be out of
the area by 6 pm and I should be able to start the day dry (that
said, recent HRRR runs want to kick out some spotty precip across
northwest lower Michigan this morning...lake response perhaps).
Otherwise, per satellite fog product, lots of low level moisture/
stratus hanging back across the upper Midwest and it will likely
take a good part of the day to thin out the cloud cover,
especially given our ever decreasing sun angle heading into
September. But most areas should eventually see a fair amount of
sunshine through the afternoon.

Tonight: High pressure builds across the region in earnest leading
to a quiet night overall with some fog potential and a bit cooler
compared to the last few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Low amplitude ridging slides across the area Monday, resulting in
few sensible weather concerns.  High temperatures a few degrees
warmer than Sunday as 850mb temperatures continue to climb.  Upper
trough and associated cold front move into the northern lakes Monday
night as low level moisture advection increases with developing
return flow on backside of surface high.  Will introduce some
scattered shower/tstm chances for eastern upper and northwest lower
later Monday night as narrow 925-850mb theta-e ridge noses into the
area, with modest mid level lapse rates between 6-7 degc/km. This
boundary will continue to sag southward through northern Michigan on
Tuesday with scattered showers/tstms.  Deep layer moisture (850-
500mb) lacking with this front, which will limit the coverage of
precipitation and the amounts.  We will likely see increasing
afternoon sunshine, at least over northern areas, behind the
boundary as deep layer drying quickly pushes southward.  It may
become a bit breezy as well, with around 20kts of wind at the top of
mixed layer. A few lingering showers/tstms possible Tuesday evening
over southern parts of our area with otherwise clearing skies.

Remainder of the week features building high amplitude ridging over
the center of the CONUS with a 1027mb surface high over Hudson Bay
nosing southward into the Great Lakes.  This will result in several
days of dry and seasonably cool conditions.  Temperatures near to
possibly slightly below normal, with northern Michigan sitting on
the western edge of 850mb thermal trough.  Some big question marks
heading into the holiday weekend, based largely around the potential
tropical system that may impact the southeast coast.  It does appear
that a front will approach the Great Lakes on Labor Day, although
this timing is very much up in the air based on the aforementioned
tropical system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Fog expected tonight.

High pressure will build over the central and southern Great Lakes
region. A humid airmass remains in place, and with clearing skies
and light winds tonight, fog is expected overnight. Anticipate
MVFR conditions at TVC, and IFR at PLN/APN/MBL. Fog will burn off
quickly Monday morning.

W to nw winds this afternoon of 5-10kt, turning light
tonight/Monday morning.


Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Winds/waves will remain below marine headline criteria through
Monday. Some stronger westerly winds through today as a low
pressure system tracks northeastward out of the region. High
pressure builds across the Great Lakes later this afternoon and
tonight bringing light winds through Monday.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Keysor
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