Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 031403
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1003 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS
THE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE REGION AND
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80F. MOISTURE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE STATE WILL TRY TO INCREASE, BUT LOOKING AT THE
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS, AM EXPECTING THAT AROUND 18-20Z THAT THE CAP
WILL BREAK AND MINIMUM RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25% RANGE,
INSTEAD OF THE 25 TO 30% RANGE.

ALSO TRIMMED THE START TIME OF THE POPS BACK A BIT AS THE LACK OF
MOISTURE SLOWS DOWN THE TIMING AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY...SEE FIRE
WX SECTION FOR DETAILS. SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE T-STORMS TONIGHT.

BROAD SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION IS IN PLACE...WELL AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO NW MN. SOME BUBBLY CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
THANKS TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SINCE MIDNIGHT A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE STRAITS REGION AND FAR
NORTHERN LOWER MI. ANOTHER WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER DAY IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SLOWLY INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TRY TO HOLD DEW POINTS A BIT HIGHER.
FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO ARRIVE TONIGHT.

TODAY...POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (850-700MB NEARING
9C/KM) WILL LARGELY EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. I SAY
LARGELY...BECAUSE THE BACK EDGE GETS HUNG UP ACROSS NE LOWER MI ALL
DAY LONG. FOR THE MOST PART...ANY THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHRA SHOULD
NOT LAST PAST 12Z/8AM. SW LOW LEVEL WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
TODAY...BUT 950MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT JUST 15-20KT IN NE LOWER.
SUPPOSE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE TO TRY
TO FIGHT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE AND A STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...DEW
POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE EVEN INTO THE MID 40S...AND ANY
ACTUAL INSTABILITY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE. SO DO NOT THINK
PRECIP WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THAT MECHANISM.

INSTEAD...PRIMARY PRECIP CONCERN IS A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING 1000-
850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MUCAPES PUSHING 500J/KG W OF
A SAULT-TVC LINE BY THE END OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHRA IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE MAIN PRECIP THREAT IS CLEARLY TONIGHT.

WE WILL SEE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH LESS IN
THE WAY OF MID CLOUDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. AND 850MB TEMPS WILL
RISE ANOTHER 1C. MAX TEMPS SHOULD THUS EXCEED YESTERDAY/S
LEVELS...AND THOSE WERE ALREADY A SMIDGE TOASTIER THAN PLANNED. MOST
PLACES WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S (LAKE MI BEACHES EXCEPTED)...AND
A NUMBER OF PLACES (INCLUDING TVC) WILL TAKE A RUN AT 80F.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT...AND BE
ABOUT HALFWAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AT 12Z. THIS ISN/T THE MOST
STRONGLY FORCED SCENARIO...AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE RELATIVELY MEAGER AND
CONFINED TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. BUT THIS WEAK FORCING WILL
ENCOUNTER A REASONABLY CHARGED AIRMASS UPSTREAM...WITH MLCAPES
PUSHING 1500J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT. SO TSRA
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS RELATIVELY CERTAIN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL WI INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MI. BUT THE
INSTABILITY AXIS DOES NOT FOLD OVER INTO THIS FORECAST AREA UNTIL
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND IT IS WANING CONSIDERABLY BY THEN. IN
GENERAL...HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED POPS FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. BUT
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN ORDER FOR EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI IN
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT QUITE SURE PRECIP WILL HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO FOR SURE IMPACT NE LOWER...AND LIKELY POPS
(OR LESS IN THE FAR SE) WILL WORK THERE. SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...WITH INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGESTING AN UPSTREAM QLCS
MIGHT HOLD TOGETHER INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...WITH A
WEAKENING/DISORGANIZING TREND EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S EASTERN UPPER...50S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. STILL LOOKS LIKE
A FEW THUNDER CHANCES AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LOOKS AS IF CURRENT ZONAL
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL GO THROUGH SOME CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY SLATED TO
DIVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
SUCH...HELPING CARVE OUT A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS TROUGHING
DEEPENS INTO THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MILD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REALLY SIGNIFICANT WARMING BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY... ABOVE JUST MAY FORCE A MORE ACTIVE (WETTER) PATTERN
INTO THE REGION AS VARIOUS WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH INTERACT WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD SUSTAINED FEED
OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. WE CAN ONLY HOPE GIVEN RECENT VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND THE ONSET OF RAPID GREEN-UP.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRONTAL PLACEMENT
AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.

DETAILS: FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE CUTTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE PROCESS.
TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EXIT OF THIS
FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL WITH REGARDS TO RAIN
AMOUNTS...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. FRONT BECOMES ALIGNED WITH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...HELPING REALLY SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE ALONG THIS
GRADIENT. TIME OF YEAR/STILL COLD GREAT LAKES ALL SUPPORT THE MORE
SOUTHERN DISPLACED GUIDANCE WITH THIS BAROCLINIC AXIS...WITH RAIN
TARGETING THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. COULD BE CLOSE...BUT
REALLY LIKE THE IDEA OF STICKING WITH THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SUPPORTING THOSE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS.
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...WITH HIGHS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

STRONG SUPPORT WESTERN PORTION OF LOWER LAKES FRONT BEGINS TO BOW
BACK NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING OVERHEAD RIDGE
AHEAD OF EJECTING WESTERN WAVE. FORCED ASCENT TO OUR WEST ON NOSE OF
NORTHWARD IMPINGING LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO IGNITE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH COULD SPILL INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL OWNING TO TIMING OF EJECTING WESTERN WAVES
AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES. EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF
WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD FORCE FURTHER MATURATION OF MID LEVEL RIDGING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THEORETICALLY...
THIS SHOULD FORCE JUXTAPOSITION OFF DEEPER MOISTURE INFLOW/DYNAMICS
OFF TO OUR WEST...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TYPE OF SPECIFICITY JUST
YET...LEAVING A CONSENSUS BLEND LOW POP APPROACH WARRANTED FOR NOW.
SAME GOES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHT
PATTERN PROGRESSION PERHAPS BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO OUR
AREA. OTHER STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
FLOW POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME REAL WARM AIR INTO OUR AREA TO END
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S (NEAR 80?) THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MAY EVEN SEE SOME ACTUAL HUMIDITY...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN MORE
LIKE EARLY SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR TODAY. TURNING MVFR WITH SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA LATE TONIGHT. LLWS
TONIGHT.

BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
CENTRAL MN. QUIET...VFR WX IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH A BIT
BREEZIER THAN SATURDAY. SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NW LOWER MI NEAR OR A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT. VSBY AND PERHAPS CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE.

BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. LLWS TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE LAKE MI COASTAL WATERS...NOT
INCLUDING GD TRAV BAY. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO LOW-END SCA
CRITERIA...AND WAVES WILL ALSO BUILD IN THE LONG FETCH. COUPLE
OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN FOR WINDS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA ARE THE ST
MARYS RIVER AS GUSTINESS INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING
SAGINAW BAY NEAR TAWAS/OSCODA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE LOCALES
TODAY. DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>036-041-
     042.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



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