Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 210307
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1007 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TIP OF SUPERIOR...AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES BETWEEN THOSE RIDGE
AXI...BUT IT IS RELAXING...AND 1000-850MB FLOW IS BECOMING LESS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AS A RESULT. THE LAST OF THE INTENSE NNW-
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR IS MOVING EAST
ONTO THE ONTARIO COAST...WITH NW TO EVEN WNW BANDING SEEN ON
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NW LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALSO
OCCURRING IN NW LOWER (ESPECIALLY ANTRIM/KALKASKA). A FEW 30+DBZ
RETURNS STILL SEEN HERE...BUT COVERAGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

ON THE WHOLE...THE GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS REASONABLE...WITH
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND THE
INVERSION LOWERS. LES WARNING FOR CHIP CO RUNS THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THAT/S FINE. ALL HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER PRESENTLY
SET TO RUN OUT AT MIDNIGHT. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO POST ADVISORIES
(NO WARNINGS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES (MOST
LIKELY LEELANAU/GD TRAV...EAST TO OTSEGO/CRAWFORD). WILL MAKE THAT
CALL BETWEEN 11PM AND MID.

WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE CAD REGION...WHERE TEMPS ALREADY DEEP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SAME APPLIES IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ019-
     021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM



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