Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 282300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN
MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST.
AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700
TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER
TO THE GREAT LAKES.

WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH
DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT
OCTOBER...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF
A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND
BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN.

VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN
SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SHORELINES.

TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF
AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH
AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS
SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/

ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE
OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MR






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