Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241416
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level ridge axis extends up through the plains this morning
with downstream surface high pressure/dry air stretched across
the Great Lakes. Thus satellite imagery reveals lots of clear
skies across the state, and that will not change through the rest
of the day. There may be some minimal cu development that
contracts inland with the marine layer, although the 12Z APX
sounding reveals a fairly dry low level profile and capping above
775 MB. So an overall sunny forecast will do it along with
seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

IMPACTS: None.

Synoptic pattern and observations:

Such a beautiful early morning. Clear skies, high pressure and calm
winds. There was a shortwave aloft, which has already passed to our
south, resulting in some mid cloud well downstate. The high pressure
extends back into Wisconsin, while the next system to be watching is
the shortwave over the pacific NW, which will be the weather concern
for later periods (see below)...

Temperatures were comfortably in the 40s and low 50s most areas.

Synoptic pattern evolution:

Beautiful weather continues. The high pressure will center itself
over us today before exiting east tonight. Mainly sunny skies, with
only some few-sct cumulus expected, and light winds turning to lake
breezes this afternoon. High temperatures climbing a touch higher
into the upper 70s and lower 80s most areas. The cumulus dissipates
from inland areas by this evening with skies going clear for awhile
longer. There will be some ejected weak energy/vorticity from the
pac NW wave that rides over the top of a mid level ridge working
into the western Great Lakes. This may bring some high level cirrus
in overnight tonight. The clear skies and calm winds will bring
another very comfortable night with lows in the upper 40s to lower
half of the 50s most areas. Diurnal swings of 30+ degrees in many
areas again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

IMPACTS: Minimal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: Saturday morning, height rises
will continue to build into the region ahead of low pressure moving
through Saskatchewan/Manitoba. The ridge axis will pass overhead
late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, as the low begins to
occlude. While the low will pass near James Bay, the occluded front
will pass through the state Sunday. Broad troughing will then setup
over the NE CONUS going into mid-week, with a cooler airmass in
place for a couple of days before height rises once again build in
from the west later in the week.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: Rain  and thunderstorm
chances Saturday night into Sunday along the front.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: The main story for the initial part of the long
term revolves around the rain chances late Saturday into Sunday. The
strongest QG forcing remains well to our north, but starting to see
some signals in guidance that could help this line hold together as
it moves through. Though the H5 trough is not very negatively
tilted, there is weak diffluent flow ahead of it. There is also a
jet streak near the area, with divergence aloft around the time of
frontal passage colocated with surface convergence. As a result,
seeing some guidance not only hold the line together, but painting
some 1"+ precip values particularly across Eastern Upper where
better forcing is to be found. Timing of the front looks good, but
at this point the likely PoPs seem a bit high. Right now, things are
dependent on that upper forcing to be properly placed and in just
the right spot. While it has slowed a bit and could benefit from
daytime heating, there will likely be some clouds and/or showers
prior to arrival of the actual front which will serve to limit the
heating and thus the destabilization. From a pattern recognition
standpoint, this looks very much like the lines that hold into
Wisconsin, fall apart as they move over the lakes and through the
state, and then re-intensify to our east. For now have lowered the
PoPs from likely, if the better forcing continues to manifest itself
in the next couple of runs may be bumped up a bit. Will also see
some gusty winds as the front moves through. There is another shot
for a few showers Monday/Tuesday as another shortwave comes through
further reinforcing the cooler airmass overhead. A relatively dry
airmass will hinder those showers, however.

Tuesday could see slightly below normal temps as the second wave
moves through, but the remainder of the extended will once again see
building high pressure and near normal temperatures, perhaps
slightly above. Most areas will remain dry as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 617 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

...VFR...

High pressure, dry air and clear skies will be the rule today,
along with light winds turning to lake breezes this afternoon and
just a few cumulus. The high pressure departs to the east tonight
with a light south wind developing. Winds will decouple however,
going calm for the majority of the night. There is a disturbance
aloft that works in over the western Great Lakes that could bring
some high level cirrus late Friday night.

Winds will be under 10kts through the period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

...Increasing winds over the weekend and chances for showers and
a few storms...

High pressure, dry air and light winds turning to lake breezes this
afternoon with sunny skies. Beautiful boating weather. The high
pressure drifts east tonight with a light southerly wind developing.
These winds increase through Saturday, with a more substantial
increase Saturday night into Sunday as a band of showers and
possible thunderstorms roll in ahead of a cold front. While the
stability over the Lakes will be high, can foresee mainly Lake
Michigan and possibly Whitefish Bay seeing advisory level gusts, and
to a lesser degree, portions of Lake Huron.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...Dickson
LONG TERM...Mayhew
AVIATION...Dickson
MARINE...Dickson



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