Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 120314
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1014 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS POISED OVER SRN
ONTARIO...WITH LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING EXTENDING THRU LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF IT. DOMINATE WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...LIKELY FURTHER ENHANCED
BY LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING AND STRONG CONVERGENCE CLEARLY TAKING
PLACE PER REGIONAL OBS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...IMPACTING MAINLY FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN ALONG AND NORTH
OF M-32. DRIER AIRMASS OVER WISCONSIN AND LWR MICHIGAN HAS LEAD TO
OVERALL WEAKER BANDING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT BOTH AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO
SOME COOLING ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TIP OF
THE MITT WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. BUT STILL EXPECT OVERALL SNOWFALL
SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN.

WITH RESPECT TO ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA
COUNTY...BOTH THE LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 STILL SHOW THE DOMINATE
WESTERLY FLOW LAKE SNOW BAND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS COULD GIVE
CHIPPEWA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NRN CHIPPEWA COUNTY A QUICK 3 TO 5
INCHES OF NEW SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
THE ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SE-WARD...JUST W OF LAKE MI. WINDS ARE
BACKING IN RESPONSE...WITH LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS BEING
PUSHED EASTWARD. THIS LEFTOVER LES IS QUITE WEAK...HINDERED BY
ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR. SOMEWHAT STRONGER LES ELEMENTS ARE SEEN
ON SUPERIOR. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NORTH OF SUPERIOR...AND THIS ONE
MEANS BUSINESS...ENTERING EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...FAR NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT...AND
CHIPPEWA CO OVERNIGHT. THE LTL TRAV BAY REGION IS THE MAIN TARGET OF
WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES)...WHICH IS WHAT WE WILL SEE TONIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS AT DAWN. NOTE THAT THIS FETCH IS NOT AS LONG
AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE WINTER...AS GREEN BAY IS FROZEN OVER. THIS
FETCH ALSO HAS NO CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY QUITE POSITIVE...DELTA T/S 20-ISH...
INVERSION HEIGHTS AT TIMES UP TO 8K FT...A RELATIVELY STABLE FETCH.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR AND SHORT FETCH SHOULD PROVE TO BE A
CONSIDERABLE OBSTACLE. THIS IS OBSERVED IN NAM SOUNDINGS OVER FAR
NORTHERN LAKE MI...WHICH ARE NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED BENEATH THE
INVERSION (INCLUDING A 10C DEW PT DEPRESSION AT 850MB). THINK THIS
IS INDICATIVE OF LES NOT BEING AS INTENSE AS IT COULD BE. WILL BACK
OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER...MORE IN THE 2-3
INCH RANGE...AND REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY THERE FOR THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

CHIPPEWA...HERE A SHORT FETCH IS NOT A CONCERN. DOMINANT BAND WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN W FLOW...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BAND WILL PUSH INTO CHIPPEWA CO
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SAID FRONT. EXPECT HEALTHY SNOWFALL RATES (2
IN/HR) FOR A SHORT PERIOD AT LEAST IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHIP.
CERTAINLY EXPECT A HEALTHY IMPACT (NEARING 4 INCHES) AT PARADISE AND
POINTS NORTH...QUESTION IS HOW HARD THE SAULT MIGHT GET HIT? SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WILL HAVE ABOUT 2 INCHES THERE. GIVEN INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES FOR A PERIOD...AND IN LINE WITH MQT...WILL ISSUE AN
ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR CHIP.

ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MI...GENERALLY SCT POPS OR LESS...EXCEPT VERY
EARLY ON (FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY)...AND VERY LATE (WHEN SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT ARRIVES AFTER 09Z IN PARTS OF NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI).
MINIMAL ACCUMS THRU DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE. EASTERN UPPER WILL SEE RISING
TEMPS THIS EVENING...FALLING AGAIN LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SINGLE DIGITS.
NW LOWER WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE IN THE TEENS. IN N CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER... READINGS WILL DROP BACK INTO SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR
ZERO BEFORE REBOUNDING A BIT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOW CONTINUING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...CONTINUED COLD WITH SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES...
AS YET ANOTHER SURFACE FEATURE DROPS SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850/500MB QVECTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...SHOWING STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER NRN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING ARND 00Z SATURDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE
SNOWBELTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS BTWN 5K AND 6K
FT...WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TREND FROM WEST FRIDAY MORNING TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE HINDERED AS THE RESULT OF EXTREMELY COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FRIDAY SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER 60 PCT. LAKE
EFFECTS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACRS NW FLOW SNOWBELTS...AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 6K FT AND SFC-850MB WINDS SET UP
MORE PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST. TEMPS ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BE
WARMEST DURING THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -24C BY THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED INTO THE WRN
LAKES AND NRN PLAINS FRIDAY...WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. AT UPPER LVLS...500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC
SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST LEAVING ONLY WEAK RIPPLES IN THE
UPPER FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL STILL BE AN INFLUENCE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES MAINLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -24C CONTINUES OVER WATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER LAKE SNOWS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 3KT THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE. ALSO...SFC-850MB WINDS SATURDAY
EVENING WILL TREND MORE NORTHERLY HELPING TO FOCUS LAKE SNOWS MORE
DIRECTLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES.
OVERALL WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY SUNDAY AS
WEEKENDS HIGH BEGINS TO EXIT EAST OF THE REGION...THOUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SNOW CHANCES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS SUNDAY OVER THE
WRN LAKES...THE RESULT OF INCREASING MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF
UPPER TROUGH DROOPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. COLD 850MB TEMPS THRU
THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER NRN MI...WITH
SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS SATURDAY AND TEENS SUNDAY. THE REAL STORY WITH
COLD THIS WEEKEND IS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BELOW ZERO...WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS NEARING WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (-20F TO -30F OVER NRN LWR AND -25 TO -35
OVER ERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP BEHIND THE EASTERN DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. 2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN UPPER ON THE
SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALSO AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY
WARM TO LEVELS THAT WILL NOT SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LAKE
CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES NORTHERN MICHIGAN A BRIEF BREAK
FROM PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEGINS IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/OCCASSIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
TARGET FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN (PLN) FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NW ON FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES THRU NRN MICHIGAN...REDIRECTING MUCH OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY TO FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN ALONG AND WEST OF
I-75. NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
CAUSING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND FURTHER REDUCING VSBYS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

BRISK WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT...WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTIER NW WINDS
FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MIZ019>022-025>028-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JZ


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