Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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964
FXUS63 KAPX 301905
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Talk about one slowly evolving pattern, with upper level low
pressure only now beginning to show signs of lifting north through
the Ohio River Valley. Northern Michigan has remained just a bit too
far north to get into the associated widespread wet weather, with
our impacts being relegated to plenty of clouds, gusty northeast
winds, and just some scattered light shower activity. That is about
to change, however, as that northward movement with the upper level
low is expected to continue into this weekend. This will force what
has been southern Michigan centered wet weather to do the same,
bringing increasing chances for showers to our area for the next few
days.

While that whole system does slowly move north, it remains a rather
challenging rain forecast tonight. Per simple radar extrapolation
and analysis of best forcing, it still appears vast majority of rain
tonight will remain off to our south through much of the overnight,
perhaps taking until Saturday morning for a more aggressive
northward push. Not, however, entirely sold that the area will
remain completely dry, especially for areas along and south of M-72.
Will continue to slow arrival of rain chances north of here, keeping
areas north of the big bridge mostly dry. For those areas that do
receive rain, not expecting nearly the rain amounts experienced to
our south as the deepest Atlantic moisture feed becomes increasingly
pinched off to our east. Clouds and maintenance of east to northeast
winds tonight will keep temperatures several degrees above normal.

Better rain chances look to make a more definitive northward push
Saturday as that upper level low reaches the southern Lakes during
the afternoon. Expect bands of light to moderates showers to slide
west to east, particularly across northern lower, with the greatest
coverage the further south one goes. Slight increase in mid level
lapse rates suggests at least a small chance for isolated
thunderstorms, in-line with the latest Storm Prediction Center
thoughts. Definitely not seeing any severe weather potential. Once
again, just not expecting any real significant rains with increasing
loss of a good Atlantic moisture feed. Also, don`t see this as being
an all day washout, with extended periods of dry weather likely
between passing showers. As one would expect this time of year given
cloudy skies, just not much of a diurnal temperature response during
the day, with highs only a few degrees warmer than tonights low
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Synoptic pattern: Vertically stacked upper low over the Ohio Valley
will meander its way northward through the Thumb region of Michigan
through the end of the weekend.  This will keep the weather
unsettled, with lots of clouds and some showers.  Rising heights as
ridging builds into the Great Lakes for early next week.

A somewhat challenging precipitation forecast for Saturday night
into Sunday, as computer models continue to struggle to resolve some
of the smaller shortwave features pinwheeling around parent mid
level circulation.  Forecast soundings show deep layer moisture
across much of northern Michigan Saturday night as upper low pushes
through southeast Michigan.  This may be the best opportunity for
more widespread coverage of showers across the area.  It will be
mainly showers, although a rumble of thunder is also possible over
southeast parts of the area where there will be an area of steeper
lapse rates closer to mid level circulation center.   Upper low
gradually pulls east of the area on Sunday, with low clouds and
lingering showers (especially the first half of the day).  The
clouds will keep temperatures in the coolish upper 50s to lower 60s.

Large amplitude ridging begins to develop across the Great Lakes on
Monday as a trough digs into the inter-mountain west.  It may take
some time to scour out the low level moisture on Monday despite
rising heights aloft.  But the deep layer drying will eventually win
out with increasing sunshine.

JK

Extended (Monday night through Friday) issued at 300 PM EST TUE SEP
27 2016

The upper level pattern shows some transient ridging building over
the Great Lakes for Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will bring a
couple beautiful dry days with unseasonably warm temperatures. Then
the next weather maker moves in for the Thursday/Friday time frame.
Blended solutions in the grids showing slight chance pops as early
as Thursday morning...with a 50 pop through the day. I`m thinking
this is a little too ambitious, as model trends are showing more of
a Thursday night/Friday time frame for the best chances. Even
then...I`ll mention with any suspected tropical activity off the
eastern seaboard...that could further bog things down.
Regardless...when this front passes, we should see temperatures
return closer to climo.

Berger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Touch cloud forecast at the taf locations tonight and Saturday.
Earlier mvfr producing clouds starting to scatter out across the
north, with low overcast hanging tough over southern areas (KMBL).
This trend should continue for the next few hours, with lower cigs
eventually expanding back north this evening, and especially
during the overnight into Saturday morning. Current thinking is
these will stay predominately in the mvfr range. Light rain
showers will accompany this lowering cloud deck, although impacts
look to remain minimal. Marginally gusty east to northeast winds
to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Simply not much change expected through tonight with
marginally gusty east to northeast winds to continue, especially
across Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. System responsible for these
winds slowly moves across the area this weekend, keeping similar
wind conditions, at least through Saturday. Pressure gradient does
look to diminish some heading through Saturday night and Sunday,
allowing the winds to subside a bit as they back around to a more
northerly direction. Current trends support mostly light winds to
start next work week, along with seasonably mild conditions.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...KAB/Keysor
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



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