Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
135 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 1026 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

1013mb low pressure is over central Lake Erie. Widespread (light)
precip, mostly rain at this point, is confined to Presque Isle/
Alpena/Montmorency Counties. A few rain showers linger in other
parts of northern MI. Surface temps are drifting ever-so-slowly
higher, as diurnal heating combats weak cold advection. We have a
considerable amount of fog here at our hilltop location, aided by
a low stratus deck and the 4 inches of snow cover that we now
need to melt off. Skies are overcast in most areas, though there
are a few thin spots in nw lower MI, and some larger breaks in
eastern upper.

No major adjustments are needed. The absolute highest locales
could still see snow mix in over the next couple of hours (just
33F here at the office), though precip in these areas will be
spotty at best. Showers will linger longest in ne lower MI, aided
by ne/nne flow lake effect from Huron. Can allow for a little more
sun in eastern upper than earlier progged. Have added fog thru
early afternoon over the highest terrain features.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High impact weather potential: Period of heavy snow in the higher
terrain very early this morning.

Compact short wave is crossing northern lower Michigan this morning
dragging a respectable batch of deformation precip across much of
the CWA, primarily northern lower MI although precip has finally been
sneaking into eastern upper MI over the last few hours. Nice
flare-up of heavier precip across northern lower Michigan
overnight along the short wave itself. Lightning network even
detected a CC lightning flash down by Houghton Lake around 2:15
am right along the narrow dry slot wrapping around the tight
circulation. Precip is mainly snow or a mix through the higher
elevations (we`ve picked up a few inches overnight) transitioning
to rain near the coasts. Drier air/subsidence and back edge of
precip is now working into the W/SW parts of the area behind the
short wave center.

Today: Short wave advances eastward across Lake Huron this
morning followed by drier air building W-E and synoptic precip
ending by late morning/early afternoon. That said, conditions
remain favorable for lingering lake induced precip across NE lower
Michigan through the afternoon as low level flow backs from east
to north by late in the day. Have stretched out precip chances
through the afternoon accordingly.

Tonight: Upper level trough axis moves off to the east while
fairly impressive warm air/ridging builds just upstream through
the plains and surface high pressure slides overhead. May see
some clearing skies and dropping temps across eastern upper
Michigan and portions of northern lower Michigan this evening.
However, with low level flow backing around to the west-southwest
and lingering cool low level air, suspect we see lake stratus
spread back into the region during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Fairly amplified pattern across
the CONUS tonight with troughing centered over the east coast,
ridging over the midsection of the nation with another well defined
trough off the West Coast. Area of low pressure continues to plague
the Great Lakes tonight into the day Thursday before shifting toward
the East Coast Thursday night. Weak ridging attempts to build into
the western Great Lakes beyond the current system, only to be
dampened by another northern stream wave diving out of Canada into
the Great Lakes late Friday into the upcoming weekend.

Friday - Friday night: Well-defined northern stream shortwave and
associated deepening area of low pressure become centered over
northern MN by Friday afternoon. With strong low-mid level return
flow gradually increasing moisture, would expect at least scattered
isentropically driven precip to be move across portions of the area,
mainly north of M-32 and especially across eastern Upper prior
Friday afternoon. Could be breezy at times as well with a
strengthening pressure gradient as the system approaches. Model
soundings would suggest fairly stable low levels, thus limiting any
really high gusts from mixing down (50-55 kts at 925 mb, so it
surely isn`t far off the surface). Will focus the highest gusts
along both Lake MI/ the 25-30 mph range, but worth
monitoring for higher gust potential in the next couple of days.
Beyond the daylight hours, guidance continues to struggle with the
overall redevelopment of showers overnight across the remainder of
northern Lower. Will include chance PoPs across almost the entire
area, nosing into the likely category across eastern Upper through
the early overnight hours; however, still not expecting appreciable
rainfall over the CWA. Seasonably mild Friday night lows are
expected...some 10-15 degrees above normal (ranging from the low 40s
far north to the mid 40s-50 elsewhere).

Saturday - Saturday night: As Friday-Friday night`s system continues
to press eastward, could be a few lingering showers early Saturday
morning, but exiting moisture and a lack of synoptic forcing should
really limit the overall coverage. Cooler air begins to filter in
Saturday afternoon-Saturday night; however, the degree to which how
cold it gets aloft remains uncertain. By Saturday night, a
tightening baroclinic zone sets up from western WI eastward through
central MI, likely providing enough support to kick off an area of
showers or period of rain that`s expected to slide through the
southern third of the forecast area during the evening into the
overnight hours.

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday)...

An active forecast continues into at least the first half of the
extended forecast with another area of low pressure progged to
plague the area early next week. As northern Michigan lies on the
southern side of the aforementioned system, H8 temps surge to 10-13
C, aiding in rising surface temperatures to 6-8 degrees above normal
for Monday and Tuesday (ranging from the low 50s north to the
mid/upper 50s south). High pressure settles atop the Great Lakes
beyond Tuesday with precip-free conditions expected to prevail for
the end of the extended.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

MVFR cigs this afternoon and again Fri morning.

Plenty of low level moisture remains, behind departing low
pressure over eastern Lake Erie. MVFR cigs are widespread in
northern lower MI presently, though some drying is working in
from the north. Expect improving cigs from n to s late this
afternoon and especially this evening, and all sites will have a
period of VFR conditions. However, southerly flow will kick in
late tonight/early Friday ahead of the next system, and those
lower clouds will then return north. MVFR cigs will again become
widespread by Friday morning.

Ne winds this afternoon, becoming light this evening. South winds
developing overnight, becoming gusty by midday Friday.


Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Gustier easterly winds will persist through this afternoon with
small craft advisory winds/waves persisting on Lake Huron.
Winds/waves diminish tonight. However, another round of gusty
winds develop on Friday with gale force gusts possible on portions
of the Great Lakes.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>349.

LM...GALE WATCH from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for



LONG TERM...Gillen
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