Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS63 KAPX 161032
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
632 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers today transition to snow showers this evening
  into tonight. Generally minor snow accumulation possible
  tonight.

- A couple of inches of snow possible Sunday into early Monday across
  northwest snow belts. Falling snow and breezy winds will
  result in lowered visibility and hazardous travel.

- More snow showers possible Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-defined mid-upper level trough axis
is currently draped from Hudson Bay southward through Ontario into
the upper MS Valley. This wave continues to dig into the western
Great Lakes today, becoming centered overhead tonight. At the
surface, low pressure currently over northern Ontario will follow
suit over the next 24 hours...becoming placed over western Quebec by
12z Sunday. A cold front associated with this system will cross
northern MI this morning with cold advection on the heels of
increasingly gusty west-northwest winds being the rule through the
weekend.

Forecast Details:

Rain showers today transition to snow showers this evening into
tonight: Regional radar early this morning continues to depict
rain showers sliding west to east across the U.P., which should
gradually work their way into the eastern U.P. and far northwest
lower toward sunrise this morning. Those chances spread east
across north-central and eventually northeast lower MI by mid-
late morning. While not expected, there remains a low chance for
a few wet snowflakes to mix in with this initial activity.
Additional isolated to scattered rain showers remain possible
into this afternoon hours with gusty winds turning out of the
west-northwest aiding to eventually draw in a cooler (more
seasonable) airmass heading into this evening and overnight.

Scattered rain showers will likely mix with and turn to primarily
snow by sunset across the eastern U.P. and by mid-late evening over
northwest lower. Not much expected in the way of organization and
intensity with these snow showers given a lack of deep moisture,
but energy pinwheeling around departing low pressure and an
increasing lake component will warrant PoPs remaining in the
forecast. Some minor snow accumulation (up to an inch or so)
probable overnight, especially in the typical areas downwind of
Lakes Superior and Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Troughiness on the back edge of an upper low to the northeast in
Canada will move through northern Michigan Sunday into Monday
triggering snow showers. In addition, sfc low tracking to the
northeast across Ontario and Quebec will result in a modest pressure
gradient/low level wind increase and thus breezy conditions Sunday.
Continued cool northwest flow aloft expected on Monday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy and cooler air will swing through northern Michigan Sunday
into Monday producing scattered snow showers. Minor snow
accumulations will be possible in the typical northwest snow belts
as a result. Right now thinking up to ~3 inches generally with
isolated higher amounts possible (especially/potentially
Antrim/Kalkaska counties). Modest pressure gradient and increase in
low level winds will result in breezy conditions on Sunday. The
breezy winds will combine with falling snow to lower visibilities in
any heavier snow showers resulting in occasionally hazardous travel.
Perhaps some isolated light snow showers early on Monday with much
of the precipitation diminished, or diminishing, throughout the day.
Cool, generally below normal temperatures expected as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Piece of energy swings through Monday night into Tuesday within
northwest flow aloft. Consequently, there will be the potential for
snow showers due to cool northwest low level flow. Minor snow
accumulations will be possible in the typical northwest snow belts.
Dry air moves in on Wednesday with clearing and lowering
precipitation chances for much of the area as cool northwest flow
aloft remains. Next short wave of energy and precipitation chance
looks to be late next week/early next weekend. All major ensemble
members, EPS, GEFS, GEPS, suggest at least the potential for light
to modest precipitation amounts, some of it potentially being
wintry. Too early to tell the exact amounts (any really ptype) but
worth keeping an eye on in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Increasing rain shower chances early this morning with at least a
brief period of MVFR CIGs possible, primarily at CIU. Isolated to
scattered rain showers continue at times today, mixing with snow
this evening into tonight. Gusty southwest winds turn west-
northwesterly through the day and continue breezy at times through
tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Increasingly gusty southwest winds early this morning turn west-
northwesterly behind a passing cold front today. Periods of Small
Craft Advisory winds/waves likely on all of northern Michigan
nearshore waters today through Sunday with some potential for a few
sporadic low-end gale gusts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...MJG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.