Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 230929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
529 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

Issued at 527 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Seeing the rain showers that were moving toward us from Wisconsin
are holding together better than expected has resulted in the need
for at least a chance for this rain to reach portions of the GTV
Bay region. This will continue through mid morning or so.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016


Synoptic pattern and observations:

Really quiet and pleasant outside in the north woods early this
morning. The air mass is quite dry with roughly 0.60" in PWAT from
the 00z sounding, and only some mid and high level moisture
advection/clouds pushing in from a shortwave aloft which is
progressively broadening out. The weak echoes/reflectivity across
eastern upper and far nrn Lake Michigan are above 12kft and higher
and not threatening to reach ground, while the leading edge of the
rainfall in Wisconsin in slightly lower cloud bases is showing the
expected signs of eroding as it nears our drier air mass. Temps were
of a wide range across nrn Michigan, ranging from the mid to upper
50s where there was some wind or downwind from the Lakes, to the
lower 40s in those typically colder low lying areas.

Synoptic pattern evolution:

The shortwave aloft will cross us today into this evening,
progressively shallowing out with time with weakening forcing, while
working into our drier air mass. Scattered to broken mid and high
level cloud is all that is expected for the day, but it will be
interesting if a spot or two can see a sprinkle. Temperatures
will climb into the mid to upper 70s most areas. The wave crosses
tonight, while sfc high pressure and even drier air will settle in
over the region. Skies will clear through the night with light
winds resulting in many areas, especially the low lying areas,
feeling 30+ diurnal ranges in temperatures. Lows will range from
the those low lying areas getting down into the lower 40s,
possibly some upper 30s, to the lower 50s in coastal locations or
some higher exposed areas that may continue to feel some light

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016


through the weekend ahead of a cutoff, and surface, low tracking
along the Canadian border. This surface low will pass through James
Bay early in the week, with the attendant cold front currently
looking to pass through the state on Monday. The familiar of late
high pressure and ridging will once again starting building into
the region into mid-week.

passage on Sunday.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: The best shot for weather will be with the
frontal passage Sunday. With the low tracking through James Bay, the
best forcing will be to our north as well. It continues to look as
though it may fall apart a bit as it comes through, and pick up
again to our east, but there could still be some scattered showers
and rumbles of thunder with it. Aside from that, we are looking at
another warm weekend with temperatures ranging through the 80s, with
a brief cooling into the mid 70s after the frontal passage early in
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016


While sfc low pressure crosses well to our south bringing heavy
rains from showers and thunderstorms, nrn Michigan`s air mass is
quite dry. A couple of disturbances aloft will cross the region
through tomorrow, bringing only some scattered to possibly broken
mid and high clouds. Best of clouds around MBL. Skies clear out
from the north late today and into tonight as high pressure and
even drier air work in over the region.

Winds will be light through the period, with a tendency to turn to
lake breezes this afternoon.


Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016

...Minimal marine concerns into the weekend...

High pressure continues to focus on the northern Great Lakes, but
will establish itself over all nearshore waters through Friday.
Light winds will turn to lake breezes in the afternoons. Saturday
into Sunday, southerly winds develop and increase, but more
significantly above the water sfc due to stable conditions. Advisory
level winds are not anticipated attm, but will be possible Sunday
mainly in Lake Michigan. No rainfall over this period until late
Saturday night into Sunday with a frontal passage that will turn
winds more westerly into the next work week.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Dickson
LONG TERM...Mayhew
MARINE...Dickson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.