Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 030716
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.