Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 260447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE
TAIL-END OF A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...A PRETTY
SEASONABLY NORMAL DAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 7OS TO THE LOWER 80S.

WRF MODELS HAVE THE CONVECTION DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
WEAKENING/FADING OUT EARLY ON THIS EVENING...PROBABLY NOT REACHING
MUCH PAST I-94 BEFORE COMPLETELY FIZZLING OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO IA AFTER MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WRF MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO WILL GO
WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO ELKADER IA
LINE.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK FORCING WITH THE WAVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20-40 PERCENT POP
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THEN LOOK
TO RAPIDLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EXIT OF THE
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLY NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 75-
80 DEGREE RANGE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WITH NAM/GFS PRODUCING 0-
3KM MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500-3000J/KG. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...SO LOOKS LIKE A PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW HAILERS. PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AGAIN IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.

ON/OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED PAST BOTH TAF SITES AND HAVE DISSIPATED FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS JUST A HIGH LEVEL CEILING FROM THE REMAINS OF SOME
STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE 26.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND NMM
ALL SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BUT KEEP IT WIDELY SCATTERED.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD HIT THE TAF SITES IS
TOO LOW TO EVEN INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04


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