Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 132331
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
531 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

WILL SOON BE SENDING OUT AN UPDATED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ADJUSTING
THE START TIME FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE CURRENT TIME. MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN INTO NORTHEAST IA ALREADY REPORTING 0 TO 1/4SM VISIBILITY IN
FOG. CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS DIRE YET ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST WI...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP RAPIDLY OVER THE
ENSUING FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF SOLAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

UNSEASONABLY MILD/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR INTO THE AREA
PRODUCING  WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE.
VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED THROUGH THE DAY TIME
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH CENTRAL WI WHERE THE VISIBILITY
WAS STILL 1/4SM AT MEDFORD. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARX
FORECAST AREA WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

FOR TONIGHT...RAP/NAM SHOWING 0-1/2KM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH
PRODUCTION OF DRIZZLE. LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG WILL BE A GOOD BET FOR
TONIGHT AS WELL...SO OPTED TO ISSUE/EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SEE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION BELOW
FOR SPECIFICS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...DAMP/MILDER/FOGGY DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR
SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...WILL BE CLOSING IN ON RECORD
HIGHS BUT APPEARS WE WILL FALL JUST SHORT DUE TO CLOUDS/AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

PLAN ON AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...FUELED BY A CONTINUATION OF MOIST/MILD AIRFLOW AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW OVER EASTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

MODELS COMING INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTHERN IA MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE LOW SWINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. COOLER AIR CIRCULATING IN BEHIND THE LOW AIDED
BY DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION THE RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE A SLOWER TRANSITION RIGHT
NOW...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THIS FOR SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE QUICKER RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ON TUESDAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW...OTHERWISE PLAN ON A BRISK/COOLER
DAY AS HIGHS DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 1/4SM IN FOG
EXPECTED AT BOTH KRST/KLSE. KRST ALREADY AT 1/4SM IN FOG AND WILL
KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. KLSE CURRENTLY VFR...BUT
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
1/4SM IN FOG BY 13.05Z. CEILINGS WILL ALSO DROP AT KLSE FROM
AROUND 700 FT AGL TO 200 FT AGL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. FOR
SUNDAY...OUR RECORD HIGH AT ROCHESTER IS 52 DEGREES AND 56 DEGREES
AT LA CROSSE. THESE RECORDS...AS WELL AS MANY AROUND OTHER SMALLER
CITIES / SITES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...WERE SET IN 1998. IT
APPEARS THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW RECORD
LEVELS...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO GET FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
RECORD. CLOUDY SKIES AND THE VERY LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR
LOOK TO HOLD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

ON THE OTHER HAND...IT LOOKS WE STAND A VERY GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING
THE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE CURRENT RECORD WARM LOW AT
ROCHESTER FOR SUNDAY THE 14TH IS 37 SET IN 1928 WHILE LA CROSSE IS
41 SET IN 1891. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE RECORD WARM LOWS IN THE
30S WHILE THE FORECAST HAS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
CLIMATE...AJ



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