Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 291902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
202 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Latest GOES water vapor imagery showing closed low churning through
the OK/TX panhandle. Deformation forced showers extending up through
IA into southeast MN/southwest WI. More of a west to east
frontogenetic band of rain was materializing in stretching
deformation area along/north of the I-90 corridor.
cover and precipitation were keeping temperatures down in the
lower/middle 40s.

Closed mid-level low/surface low will continue to lift through
Missouri/southern Illinois/Ohio River Valley tonight through Thursday
night. Our area will be on the northern periphery of precipitation
associated with the low. Fairly strong frontogenetic forcing moves
through the area this afternoon into this evening, weakening and
moving off to the east after midnight.  As such, will see the
rainfall filling in/picking up in intensity this afternoon into this
evening, then decreasing in intensity during the early morning
hours. Models have generally backed off on qpf north of I-90, with
the heaviest looking to be more confined from northeast IA into
southwest/south central WI. Model soundings also show the
possibility of a wintry mix/light snow for portions of central/north
central WI. However, qpf is pretty light so any snow accumulation is
expected to be less than 1/2 inch. Look for overnight lows across
the area in the 32 to 38 degree range.

Light rain/drizzle chances linger through Thursday and possibly into
Thursday night east of the Mississippi River as the area remains in
weakening stretched deformation axis associated with the closed low
moving off through the Ohio River Valley. With thick cloud
over/precipitation, little bump in temperatures are expected with
highs Thursday only topping off in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Ridge of high pressure will provide some drying/warming Friday into
Saturday. Will likely have to put up with some stubborn
stratocumulus Friday but models do show clearing from north to south
through the day as surface high pressure builds in from Canada.
Saturday will see mostly sunny skies in the morning with high clouds
spreading in for the afternoon. Otherwise, look for highs Friday in
the 45-50 degree range and lower to middle 50s.

Precipitation chances return Saturday night and then linger on/off
through through Wednesday as a couple more closed lows move through
the Central/Southern Plains/Ohio River Valley. Otherwise, looks like
a mostly cloudy period with high temperatures in the 50s and lows in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

VFR early conditions thru this afternoon will give way to lowering
cigs/vsbys as a system in the southern plains lifts NE and spreads
increasing moisture/lift across the area. The leading edge of the
deeper moisture/lower cigs set to reach KRST around 21z then KLSE
around 23z. Mainly MVFR conditions (cigs/vsbys) expected much of
tonight as the deeper/stronger of the lift passes, with periods of -
RA at both taf sites. However, higher elevation sites like KRST can
expect IFR cigs with some IFR vsbys after 06z tonight. The rain to
move out with improving vsbys Thu morning, but plenty of lower level
moisture remains over the region, in/under and inversion near 925mb.
Thus MVFR/IFR cigs to remain across the area thru Thu morning into
Thu afternoon. Pressure gradient slowly tightens over the area thru
tonight/Thu morning, with a gradual increase of E/NE winds. Some
wind gusts around 25kts expected after 06z at KRST and around 22kts
at KLSE after 09z.




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