Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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953
FXUS63 KARX 281900
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A closed 500 mb low/trough was rotating across northern parts of the
region this afternoon, and is slated to continue to pull northeast
over the next couple days. All models keep the Upper Mississippi
River Valley under northwest flow through Tue though, with various
ripples in the flow spinning across the area. Decent low level lapse
rates with some low level cold air advection. Weak instability
builds in during the afternoons - roughly 500 J/kg of mucape. There
will be some moisture to work with as GFS/NAM rh fields and bufkit
soundings point to some saturation centered in the 850-700 mb layer.
All in all, the lift/moisture points to a scattered shower threat
(mostly during the day) for the next couple days, with some isolated
thunder threat in the afternoon.

Temperatures are going to take a tumble with the cold air spilling
in from the north, along with clouds and some showers. Highs in the
mid 60s for most. It should be fairly breezy on Monday too, adding a
little rawness for the Memorial day holiday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

GFS/EC keep the region under northwest flow a loft into the middle
part of the new week, suggesting a transition to a bit more zonal
flow for the weekend. Weak high pressure promises a day or two of
dry conditions, centered on Wed, but fairly active after that with
various shortwave troughs spinning across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley.

Cool start to the week should see some warming for the later half -
with temps closer to the early June normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Area will be dominated by an upper level trough of low pressure
through Memorial Day. Looks dry this afternoon with only a few VFR
cumulus along with breezy west winds which will subside by sunset.
Dry through tonight with perhaps a few VFR clouds from time to time.
Expecting cumulus to fill in then through the morning hours on
Memorial Day, becoming broken by mid-morning with perhaps a few
showers developing by noon. Cloud bases/vsby are expected to remain
VFR. Winds will also pick up from the west again by mid- morning and
continuing through the afternoon hours in the 10-15kt range/gusting
20-25kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Elevated river levels continue along the Mississippi River. If you
are planning any recreational activities on the Mississippi River be
alert for these high water levels and watch out for debris in the
water that may pose a threat to watercraft.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp



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