Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 060528
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1128 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AS FORCING BATTLES DRY
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE ROTATING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...AND WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY
A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW
PACK. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.

QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDERS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW CHANCES...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDER THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRESH SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH...GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS
ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 SM IN MIST AT KRST.
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME SUB 1 SM VISIBILITY IN
FOG CURRENTLY ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT
THINK IT WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF KRST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 06.14 TO 06.15Z PERIOD...
CONTINUING THEREAFTER THROUGH 07.06Z WITH ONLY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 12 AND 16 KTS SUSTAINED AFTER 07.00Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS


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