Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS63 KARX 280816
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLUSTERY/COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN ND
WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME CLEARING WORKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

FOR TODAY...LOOKING FOR THAT CLOSED LOW OVER ND TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI. PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW. THINKING SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY
NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE A BLUSTERY AUTUMN DAY IN STORE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI CLOSE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW
FLAKES MAY EVEN MIX IN AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SOME
CUMULUS BUILD-UP FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 AS LINGER COOLER AIR
ALOFT/SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN...BUT IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS ONLY TOPPING IN THE 40S.

MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT NOW WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NAM
SHOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF 800-700MB WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL THIS
FORCING SIGNAL IS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SMALL-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR SOME REBOUND IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...TOPPING OFF
IN THE 50S.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...FEATURING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94. CARRIED 20-30 POPS THERE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATION RIGHT
NOW...BUT IF SHOWERS GET VIGOROUS ENOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT DUSTING. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/MIDDLE40S FRIDAY AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S
SATURDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH READINGS INCREASING FROM THE 40S/50S ON SUNDAY...INTO
THE 50S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED ALL THE RAIN TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
AWAY FROM THE AREA AS WELL WITH LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR ANY RAIN
AT EITHER TAF SITE THE REST OF TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR
WHILE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. AN AREA OF GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BEHIND THE LOW IS ALLOWING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO OCCUR AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS AT KRST BEFORE DIMINISHING. NOT SURE THE GUSTS WILL
MATERIALIZE AT KLSE DUE TO THE WESTERN BLUFFS BLOCKING THESE WINDS
FROM GETTING INTO THE VALLEY. THE 28.00Z NAM AND MOST OF THE MESO
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND KEEPING THE SHOWERS
WELL TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECASTS FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND
WITH PLENTY OF WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER...LOOK FOR A GUSTY WEST
WIND FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THESE GOOD
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING TO KEEP THE
GUSTS GOING BUT WITH A BIT OF A DECREASE IN THE SPEEDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.