Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 170800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RIECK



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