Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 152347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH TOMORROW IS WITH THE SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

AFTER A RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE AS SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 15.12Z GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW STRENGTHEN IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AROUND
DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING...THE WAA WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL AND
INTENSIFY THE SNOW BAND FROM MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT THE P-TYPE SHOULD ALL BE
SNOW. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS CLARK/TAYLOR
COUNTY FROM DAY BREAK THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WARM
LAYER MOVES IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTIONS RESIDE WITH
HOW WARM THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM LAYER WILL MAKE IT WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT TAYLOR
COUNTY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CUT OFF POINT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SFC TEMPERATURES GETTING UP TO AROUND 40F...WHICH WOULD BE TOUGH
TO ACCUMULATE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN OUR FORECAST...BUT IT COULD
ALSO BE OVERDOING THOSE TEMPS WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH
THE COLUMN. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT 3 TO 6
INCHES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY...POSSIBLY
EVEN IN FAR NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL BE
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY.

ANOTHER ISSUE TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW IS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. 15.12Z NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 40-45MPH POSSIBLY BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE DAY IN
NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY IN THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

DESPITE MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY...TOOK THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO AROUND DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
TO MATCH UP WITH WARNINGS ALREADY UP FOR POINTS FURTHER NORTH OF
TAYLOR COUNTY. THE 15.12Z GFS IS THE FURTHEST SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WOULD SUGGEST A COLDER PROFILE
FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE THE 15.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE
SLOWER/FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH IT AND WOULD KEEP WARMER AIR AROUND
UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE DESPITE THIS SYSTEM ALREADY BEING IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A DAY OUT. IF THE TREND IS TO GO FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE LOW...TAYLOR COUNTY WOULD PROBABLY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING WHILE CLARK MAY NEED AN ADVISORY.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS TRENDING
EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST SO HAVE KEPT THOSE DAYS DRY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO COME IN IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ON INTO SUNDAY AS A
FRONT/TROUGH COMES THROUGH AND BRINGS MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BROKEN 10K FOOT DECK...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 16.00Z AND 16.03Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AFTER 16.09Z AND THEN REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF LIFT
DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER MAY
WIN OUT...SO MOVED THE RAIN MORE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
LIFT WILL BE ENHANCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE THAT VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME
MVRF ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AFTER 16.20Z.
DUE TO THIS...INCLUDED A 3SM BR AT KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM THIS PAST WEEKENDS RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE KICKAPOO MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGH BUT
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CREST IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RAIN COMING
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI MAY REACH
FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH



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