Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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646
FXUS63 KARX 191107
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
510 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATED...
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Fog/stratus making steady progress northward this morning, dropping
visibilities to 1/4 mile. Have expanded the dense fog adv to cover
the entire forecast area through mid morning. Expect improvement
between 15-18z. Might have to extend adv a few hours if fog is more
reluctant to dissipate. Likely have some minor vsby restrictions
through the rest of the day.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 249 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Mild and very moist airmass over a melting snow pack is leading to
some stratus/fog issues across the area. Thinking this stratus and
fog will be expanding through early this morning. As such, have
hoisted a Dense Fog Advisory through 9 am for portions of northeast
IA into far southwest WI and across portions of north central WI.

For today...stratus will linger with improvement in visibility
expected later this morning for the aforementioned areas under the
Dense Fog Advisory. Will then be watching a mid-level trough/pv-
advection move toward/into the area this afternoon through
tonight...spreading rain northward. Still looks like there could be
a wintry mix tonight as this precipitation moves into colder air
north of I-94. Otherwise, highs today will remain mild in the upper
30s to lower 40s with lows tonight in the lower /middle 30s.

For Friday...will see that mid-level trough continue to lift
northward through central and northern WI with lingering rain
chances...mainly north of I-90 by afternoon. Could still see the
rain mix with some sleet or snow from time to time across north
central WI. Look for relatively mild highs again in the upper
30s/lower 40s.

Rain chances continue for Friday night as yet another mid-level
trough/lobe of pv-advection rotates northward into the area.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the 33-38 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Rain chances linger into Saturday, but hopefully trailing off in the
afternoon as the mid-level trough rotates north of I-94. Otherwise,
cloudy but mild with highs expected to top off in the 40-48 degree
range.

Sunday looking cloudy but dry for now as very weak ridging works
into the region. January thaw continues as highs climb back into the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Much of the area looks to remain dry Monday/Monday night with the
exception of small-end rain chances across central WI as that area
get hung up in mid-level deformation forcing from closed low lifting
into the Great Lakes region. Remaining mild though with highs in the
upper 30s/lower 40s.

Next chance of significant precipitation will be Tuesday into
Wednesday as low pressure tracks out of the Central Plains into the
Great Lakes Region. Right now, it looks like the precipitation will
be a rain/snow mix as highs top off in the mid-upper 30s with
overnight lows Tuesday night in the upper 20s/lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Fog/stratus has spread northward across the TAF sites and will hang
around through the morning hours. A lot of 1/2SM or less vsbys.
Expect some improvement by late morning, but ifr/mvfr look to stick
around for awhile. Could see some p6sm later today, but more likely
mvfr at best - so will hold forecast there for now.

Warm front moves north into the region, bringing widespread rain to
western WI. Backedge likely right around KRST. In addition, SREF
probabilities suggesting another swath of dense fog will develop/move
north across IA/MN. Did a good job with this morning, so more
confidence in this happening. Will trend forecast with lower vsbys
overnight.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rieck
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....Rieck



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