Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 121117 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
517 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Issued at 509 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Isolated to scattered flurries continue to exit our southeastern
border early this morning. Looking at the weather map early this
morning, high pressure remained across our area, with low pressure
moving across southern Manitoba. A sfc trough/cold front extending
southwest from the low is stretched out across far western ND. This
feature will quickly slide southeast and across our region this
morning. With strong high pressure building in behind the trough,
expect strong west-northwest winds to result. Winds will be
increasing this morning over and east of the Sisseton Hills, with a
wider area of strong winds expanding from the northwest closer to
daybreak. The combination of these west-northwest winds around 20kts
and gusts 25-35kts, higher near the Coteau, will result in
significant blowing and drifting snow. No new snow is expected. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be posted for this morning across much
of our northern tier, and through mid afternoon across the northeast
where winds will remain longest.

Will keep the current Wind Chill Advisory going as is. Looks like
conditions improve near or after 18Z, before returning again
tonight. Additional headlines will be needed for all but our
southwestern zones. Wind Chill Warnings may even be needed for our
northeast as areas from Brown to Traverse County fall to near -38F
from 08-13Z Friday. this will be as the strong sfc high shifts
across our northeastern counties 03-09Z Friday. While the main high
moves into MN/WI early Saturday morning a strong ridge will remain
in place across our region.

Scattered snow will return after 06Z Friday southwest of PIR.
Continued with a slower onset, with drier air likely winning out.
This area looks to expand across central and eastern areas Friday
morning, before ending/shifting east by early afternoon. Not
expecting much if any snow accumulation at this time.

Otherwise, temperatures will rebound back into the teens and even
20s over central SD both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Dry
conditions will remain from mid afternoon Friday through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Not much change in the out periods compared to 24 hours ago. Still
watching a mammoth low pressure system taking shape across the
central/southern plains states by early Monday of next week. 00Z
solutions will support this CWA remaining free and clear of this
system once it begins to occlude and gets picked up by the larger
scale steering flow and pushed northeastward. The far southeastern
forecast zones would be just about the only portion of the CWA
having any chance of seeing the back edge of deformation zone
precipitation. But, at this point, that`s a really low probability
of occurring.

Even though, the region is socked in by a widespread snowfield,
fully expecting to see the needle move a little bit once the low/mid-
level waa starts ramping up across the region over the weekend and
into next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in fair agreement timing
a cold front to sweep south out of Canada by Wednesday
night/Thursday of next week. But, at this point, the low level caa
behind it does not appear to be all that anomalous.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 509 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part across the area over
the next 24 hours. There is concern that northwest winds will
pick up enough this morning behind a strong cold frontal passage
that blowing snow develops and lowers visibility at times to 3 to
5 miles at KMBG, KABR and KATY.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ004>006-009-

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ007-

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-



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