Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 161727
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

An area of light rain showers continues to track through south
central ND, with mostly trace amounts. Virga certainty evident
with winds increasing due to evaporational cooling from above.
Upstream, more showers developing in northeast MT, which will
continue to shift east this afternoon. Thus the scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms for the afternoon period looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 1103 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Latest radar and surface observations show an area of very light
rainshowers stretching from Dickinson to New Salem, south into
Hettinger and Fort Yates. Only trace amounts yielded thus far at
Dickinson and Hettinger. Have updated areal coverage based on
radar and surface reports. Otherwise, mid level cloud deck is
beginning to thin across eastern Montana which will scoot into
western ND this afternoon. Some thunderstorms will develop with
instability increasing during peak heating. No severe weather
anticipated. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 832 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Quick update to capture radar trends across southwest North
Dakota. The Bowman radar shows a few showers moving across that
region, though dry air in the low levels is likely working to
inhibit some of the returns we are seeing from reaching the
ground.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Little change other than to blend to observed trends through 11
UTC and CAM trends through the 10 UTC HRRR. Overall, a one to two
hour slower progression of the initial round of rain showers this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms today highlight
the short term forecast.

CAMs through the 06 UTC HRRR favor rain showers spreading across
western and central North Dakota through the morning ahead of
multiple shortwaves embedded in zonal flow across Montana. Overall
QPF amounts with this initial round of shower activity are very
low given dry low level air.

Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected with diurnal destabilization this afternoon through the
evening, possibly sustained into the night by impulses ahead of
the main shortwave on Saturday. As has been the pattern the last
couple days, the best chances for afternoon and evening convection
are across the northwest, north central and upper James River
Valley. Severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday highlight
the extended forecast.

The 00 UTC global suites continue to be in favor of a strong shortwave
to impact the Northern Plains on Saturday, with numerous showers
and beneficial rains across the area. Weak instability, generally
below 1000 j/kg, and weak deep layer shear support thunderstorms
remaining below severe limits. Northwest flow aloft on Sunday is
forecast to transition to zonal by mid week, favoring a return to
near normal temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s after a
cool weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Scattered showers / isolated thunderstorms will move across western
and central North Dakota today. Dry air in the low levels of the
atmosphere will limit how much rain falls, so for now have generally
gone with VCSH to cover the rain potential this afternoon / evening.
A better chance of showers arrives Saturday. Have introduced -shra
to most of the aerodrome locations between 12z and 18z Saturday.
Ceilings / visibilities could begin to degrade once the showers
begin. The other concern will be winds. Gusty western winds today
will diminish this evening.  Winds are expected to increase again on
Saturday from the west / northwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
AVIATION...CK



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