Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 150545
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

LATEST RAP13/NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE SUBFREEZING/SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN THIS WAY WITH SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS BEING MORE
DOMINANT THAN ICE CRYSTALS. AS FAR AS THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
PRESENT IN THE -8C TO -20C...THE AVERAGE IS BETWEEN 55 PERCENT AND
65 PERCENT...AND CONCUR WITH THESE VALUES. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN TEH WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THAT SAID...THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL REMAIN A
THREAT LONGER AND HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE
WEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
EXPECT EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY AMOUNTS REMAINING VERY LIGHT. IMPACT TO
TRAVEL REMAINS PROBLEMATIC IN MANY COUNTIES ALREADY IN THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY DUE TO ICY ROAD CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS REGIONAL OBS INDICATE THE PRECIP TYPE
AS SNOW. OTHERWISE...EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN TIME
FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL
06Z TONIGHT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REMAINING AREAL/TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND A SATURATED STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO GENERATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT
FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED OVER WILLISTON DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 03Z. FURTHERMORE...MOST COUNTIES
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALSO UNDER A NO TRAVEL ADVISED
DUE TO ICY ROADS.

THE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE HEADLINES AS
NEEDED. FOR NOW...THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES SHOWS CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WITH TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVER OUR
AREA...VARIOUS REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE HAVE COME IN OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE A FEW WEBCAMS OVER WESTERN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ARE SHOWING AN ICE COATING. AS FOR
FOG...MAIN AREA OF VISIBILITY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THERE HAS
BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AS NORTHWEST WIND HAS BEEN INCREASING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE COOLER AIRMASS DEEPENING AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS
WAY INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TOWARDS SNOW. EXPECT THIS
GRADUAL TRANSITION WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COVERAGE OF ANY SNOW WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD...AND
ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. AS FOR THE FOG OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PUSH AS
SURFACE LOW SLIDES OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE AND PRAIRIES. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT
RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER TO HIGHS THE 20S AND LOWS 5 TO 15 ABOVE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE MODELS IN GENERAL DEPICT A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOTHING WELL-DEFINED AS FAR AS LARGE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. AGREE WITH EARLIER
FORECAST DISCUSSIONS MENTIONING WEAK AND SEPARATED FLOW ALOFT WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAK VENTILATION AND MIXING...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME FOG
POTENTIAL. AND WILL ALSO LEAVE THIS FOR LATER FORECASTS AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE OVER KDIK/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF -FZDZ DEVELOPS OVER
ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL AERODROME. AS A RESULT...LEFT -FZDZ OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-017>023-025-031>036-040>046.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ037-047-048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM







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