Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 150027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Issued at 623 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

For the early evening update, only a couple of changes to the
going forecast. Precipitation was moving in just a little faster
than forecast so updated pops. Also, decent pressure rises over
southern Saskatchewan with gusty north winds. Bumped up wind a
little late tonight through Thursday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Current surface analysis places low near Winnipeg, with cold front
stretching off to the west near the international border. Upper
level analysis places trough stretching from northern Manitoba
towards the Pacific northwest, with potent wave sliding across the
Canadian plains into the northern plains. Some light snow is
starting to work its way into the far northern portion of the
state. Ahead of the front, mild temperatures remain.

For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, cold front will
continue to settle to the south with snow gradually developing
from north to south. Initially, temperatures could be warm enough
for some rain to develop, but will switch over to snow. Models
continue to place the greatest amount of snow over northern
portions of the area, but have backed off a tad on snow amounts.
With that said, breezy winds could lead to some blowing snow. Much
colder airmass moves in behind the front.

On Thursday, snow comes to an end from north to south as surface
high settles into the area. Temperatures will remain quite cold as
high temperatures will be similar or not much higher than
overnight lows. Quiet and cold weather expected overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Surface high settles off to the southeast on Friday with warmer
air starting its return bringing a return to near seasonal
temperatures. Near normal temperatures remain into Saturday before
the next front slides through the area bringing snow chances.
Still some discrepancy remains in placement of snow for Saturday
night into Sunday as GFS focuses on the southern portion of the
state and ECMWF the northern.

Cold air then returns for the start of the week with single digit
highs on Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A strong cold front, just pushing into far northern ND, will
slide north to south through 12z Thursday. At all terminals,
expect light snow with cigs/vsbys in the mvfr/ifr range as the
cold front passes through. Gusty northerly winds to 25kt will also
result in areas of blowing snow. The light snow will taper off
across the southern terminals 15z-18z Thursday. Cigs/vsbys for
all terminals will begin to improve between 15z-18z Thursday,
varying between mvfr/low vfr.




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