Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 120748
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZE/FROST
HEADLINES. EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S THERE...BUT WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO FALL. THOUGHT ABOUT POTENTIALLY
REMOVING SOME COUNTIES FROM THE HEADLINES...BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS
STILL TO GO BEFORE SUNRISE...OPTED TO LET THINGS CONTINUE. LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE SEEN CLEARING OR THINNING CLOUDS HAVE RESPONDED BY
QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...SO WOULD RATHER GIVE THINGS A
BIT MORE TIME.

AN H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT IT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN 30S...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES FOR NOW SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES IN
PLACE THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A WARM-UP NEXT WEEK AND
A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AN 80KT H3 JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT ALONG THE FRONT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL. WILL MAINTAIN THIS
THREAT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
EVENING.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL
FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-031>035-040>045.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CK








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