Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Isolated showers continue to develop over mainly central ND. Would
not be surprised to see a lightning strike or two over the south
central, but thinking that nearly all of the small, isolated cells
will be lightning-free. Otherwise, no changes to the ongoing
forecast for today.

UPDATE Issued at 937 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Extended slight chance of showers a bit farther west into western ND
for today, given the latest iterations of the operational and
experimental HRRR model runs that depict isolated showers extending
farther west today. As the trailing upper level impulse currently
over eastern Sask/western ND moves eastward today, chances of
isolated showers lingers in the James Valley through late afternoon.
Otherwise blended hourly temp forecast with current obs, and the
remainder of the forecast is in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Going precipitation forecast looks to be in good shape as a few
very light showers have been popping up over central North Dakota.
Otherwise...only change was to add some patchy fog over the far
northwest with Estevan reporting reduced visibility.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Current surface analysis places high settled in over the western
plains...with low over the midwest. Upper level analysis places
low over southwestern Hudson Bay with trough stretching from the
northern Red River Valley to the south-southwest into central
Nebraska. Broad area of showers continue ahead of the trough,
while a few showers are starting to re-develop to its west as the
next short wave slides down.

For today...A few showers will continue today as a variety of weak
waves drop down on the backside of the trough. Latest high-res
models keep coverage of these rather low. Otherwise...a cool day
is on tap with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Swift warming trend will start the week as upper ridge builds back
into the area, with highs pushing back into the 90s over many
locations. Cold front slides through on Tuesday, though models
are keeping precipitation with this system mainly east of the area
at this time. Below average temperatures return on Wednesday in
the wake of the front, with some low precipitation chances as some
moisture attempts to wrap back into the area. Below average
temperatures and occasional low precipitation chances for the end
of the work week as area remains under broad cyclonic flow aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

MVFR ceilings from this morning continue to lift and scatter to
VFR across western and central North Dakota. This will continue
through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm are expected across central North Dakota this
afternoon. The most likely terminal to be impacted is KJMS.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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