276
FXUS63 KBIS 101926
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
226 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. Dry
  conditions expected for Saturday, with an isolated shower or
  thunderstorm possible on Sunday.

- Average (mid to upper 60s) temperatures expected next week,
  as well as near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Strong northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a
clipper/S/WV embedded trough moving southeast across the Upper
Midwest. Outside of some diurnally drive CU, a mostly sunny sky
prevails with very comfortable temperatures in the 60s to lower
70s.

Our flow aloft remain northwesterly over the next couple of
days, with an embedded wave moving through later this weekend
bringing a chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
Sat night through Sunday.

Model ensembles for next week still show a zonal flow pattern,
with increasing probability of decent S/WV moving through the
region Tue-Wed, increasing the chances for showers/thunderstorms.
Along with this, temperatures will trend slightly cooler with
and in the wake of this wave, but then should rebound some with
upper level ridging favored west. How much we warm and also
precipitation chances remain uncertain as the ridge will be just
to our west and much will depend how far east the transition
zone moves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions expected through the 18Z forecast period. Mainly
clear skies are expected today, with periods of high clouds and
a few afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH