Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211758
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1158 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. Fog remains across
portions of central North Dakota late this morning, but
visibilities have improved above 1/4 mile across most locations.
Patchy freezing drizzle and fog will remain possible across the
James Valley through the afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 920 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Some dense fog still being reported at some stations under the
dense fog advisory so will let it continue through noon. Have
pushed patchy fog into the far southwest as some visibility
restrictions are being reported over that area. Otherwise,
remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

With this update will cancel the dense fog advisory across
portions of the west and west south central.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Several weak upper lows meandering through the Northern Plains
over the next 24 hours will result in little to no ventilation
through the atmospheric column. This allows shallow cool air to
create favorable conditions for fog and the lack of seeder/feeder
ice crystals will support drizzle/freezing drizzle. This pattern
should continue for the next 24 hours or so. Will keep dense fog
advisory through 18z then re-evaluate the need for further
advisories later today for tonight. patchy freezing drizzle will
be common across the much of the central and eastern sections.
Expect little change in temperature today and tonight beneath the
low clouds and fog. There will be some diurnal change across the
southwest where at least the majority of low clouds have not made
the trek uphill. Highs today should range from 28 to 33 and lows
tonight 25 to 30 except southwest where teens are likely for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Sunday will see a slow end to the thermal profiles supporting the
fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle as the flow aloft becomes more
westerly with the upper lows exit. The next chance for snow will
be Monday night and Tuesday into Tuesday night. The global models
continue to track the upper low south of the state placing the
best chances for accumulating snow across the south. GEFS plumes
still show a wide range of solutions with the average about 1 to
2 inches. Interestingly the deterministic GFS run was nearly dry
as an outlier.

That being the current range of solutions will keep 30 to 40 pops
going for this period south of I94.

The remainder of the week looks marginally cooler with some
chances for light snow as a ridge builds across the eastern
Pacific and an h500 trough consolidates across the eastern CONUS
and Canada. Weak cyclonic flow aloft will support at least some
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions in fog and stratus will continue
across western and central North Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS


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