Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
305 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Concerns for the short term include fog across portions of the
east tonight. At 2 pm CDT a warm front extended from low pressure
centered in southern Saskatchewan through central North Dakota
with a cold front entering central Montana.

The HRRR and RAP models show the cool moist boundary layer air
remaining in place this evening across east central North Dakota.
Areas of fog and stratus are just breaking up in the afternoon
mixing with the models forecasting a return of the clouds and fog
this evening. Some uncertainty as the NAM/GFS not as certain on
fog but will add patchy fog and clouds in the evening and early
overnight east. Lows tonight will be relatively mild in the 40s
due to the general cloudiness.

On Friday the cold front will move through bringing northwest
winds and cooler air. This will also add some clouds with
cooling northwest , Highs will be in the 50s northwest to the
lower 70s southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The extended will remain mildly progressive through the period
beginning with a series of shortwave troughs Saturday with another
Sunday into Monday. A long wave eastern Pacific trough will move
onshore pushing the ridge east and eventually trending toward a
split flow aloft by Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for showers
on Saturday will be across the far south with cooler air moving
through the region. A better chance for showers will be Sunday
night and Monday with the next shortwave. Temperatures should be
mild enough for rain showers although a rain/snow mix may be
possible far northwest Monday morning. Dry and seasonable weather
the rest of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Main concerns for the TAFs focus on MVFR/IFR at KJMS as low level
clouds and fog are forecast to hang in KJMS into tonight. Some
uncertainty as to the timing of the stratus/fog exiting this
afternoon and returning tonight. Otherwise vfr at all other TAF




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