000
FXUS63 KBIS 110801
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THE ONGOING FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND FLOOD WARNINGS...LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 13Z TODAY...AND LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SNOW
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN AT HETTINGER. RAP13
CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH
IT COMING TO AN END BY 13Z IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH OUR CURRENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS SEEN
MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND THE SECOND WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO IMPINGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z. VERTICAL MOTION
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL COME FROM THE SHORTWAVES SLIDING OVER THE
ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT VIA THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 120KT H3 JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S WEST AND FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10
ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS WITH A FEW CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIP. MODELS ARE INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RELATIVELY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH WEST COAST RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDING LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE A FEW SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRUSH NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH MAIN EFFECT OF ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL BE BRIEF
COOL DOWNS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY LIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW VFR CIGS WITH SCT/BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH VSBY AT KDIK IS AT 5SM WITH FOG AND WILL BE
MONITORED. ATTENTION TURNS TO AN AREA OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS
SAGGING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN AN MANITOBA. THIS IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE AERODROMES BEGINNING AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AT
KISN/KMOT...AND INTO KBIS/KJMS BY 15Z TUESDAY. KDIK WILL BE ON THE
FRINGE OF MVFR CIGS AND FOR NOW HAVE 3500FT CIGS AS THE FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM KMOT TO KJMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

ACTIVE HYDRO SITUATION ONGOING...

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SPRING CREEK AT ZAP...LITTLE
MUDDY RIVER NEAR WILLISTON...THE LITTLE MISSOURI AT MEDORA...AND
THE KNIFE RIVER NEAR HAZEN. IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE FLOOD ADVISORY POINTS HAVE EXPERIENCED RAPID RISES DUE TO
RUNOFF FROM WEEKEND SNOW MELT...AND DUE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. THE
RISES SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE ENTIRE WEEK.

UPSTREAM OF WILLISTON...ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER NEAR
GLENDIVE...RISING WATER HAS BROKEN UP THE ICE AND CREATED ICE
JAMS. THIS HIGHER WATER WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WILLISTON
AREA THIS WEEK...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...JNS/KS