Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 022134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
334 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

For the near term, now through 00z Saturday, will continue with a
mention of isolated flurries on the leading edge of warm air
advection. Weak returns on radar continue to approach and will
move through south central ND late this afternoon.

Overall, the latest visible satellite imagery loop continues to
advertise cloudy conditions with a couple holes briefly showing up.
Trend overnight will be for some partial clearing in south central
with the HRRR/RAP13 both indicating areas of fog developing around
06z Saturday and continuing into mid Saturday morning. Surface map
indicates 3hr pressure falls getting established over southeast
Alberta into northcentral MT. This is in advance of a surface warm
front and upper shortwave slated to slide through Saturday into
Saturday night. Isentropic lift/upglide per 290K pressure surface
will result in a band of light snow moving into western ND by mid
to late Saturday morning, then shifting into central ND by late
afternoon into the early evening. Snowfall amounts will be minor,
ranging from around one tenth of an inch west and central to around
one half inch across the far northwest and north central through 00z
Sunday. Highs on Saturday around 30F for all but the west where
lower 30s will occur as warm air advection completely pushes through.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Dry Sunday with some sunshine and highs in the upper 20s north to
lower 30s south and west. Active weather initiates Sunday night
with an approaching strong cold front. This front will push from
northwest to southeast Monday with widespread light snow and
increasing northwest winds. Expecting snow and patchy blowing snow
at this time. Snowfall accumulations look probable across western
and central ND, but models are all over the place on where the
highest amounts will occur. This can be refined in future forecasts.
Following the snow will be the first surge of arctic air this
season, heralding in wind chills as low as 25 below zero Tuesday
through Thursday. We messaged this earlier in a Special Weather
Statement, and now in the Hazardous Weather Outlook to give a
heads up to the public that frost bite can occur to exposed skin
in as little as 30 minutes.

A backdoor or secondary cold front will shift through Wednesday
into Wednesday night delivering more wind very cold air for Thursday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF keep an active period going beyond the extended
with periodic warm air advection snow events which should continue
through next weekend.

High temperatures during the arctic cold event, Tuesday through
Thursday will feature high temperatures in the lower single
digits above zero, with lows in the single digits below zero.
Friday remains very cold as well for all but the far southwest
where mid teens begin to emerge.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 334 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Generally MVFR ceilings are expected at central ND sites of KMOT,
KBIS, and KJMS for the rest of this afternoon with some flurries.
Mix of VFR and MVFR at KMOT and KBIS aft 00z...and aft 05z at KJMS.

Mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings for KISN and KDIK this afternoon...becoming
all VFR aft 00z.




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