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000
FXUS63 KICT 252348
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The risk for severe storms will continue through this evening
  and into tomorrow morning.

- Conditional severe chances east of the Flint Hills Friday
afternoon and evening.

- Widespread, potentially significant severe weather possible on
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Large scale ascent will increase as we head later into the afternoon
/evening as the Desert Southwest trough continues its trek
east, ejecting out over the Rockies. Showers and storms continue
to fire this afternoon as warm moist advection continues atop a
baroclinic zone sitting over the CWA. 1500-2000 MUCAPE and
50-60kts of effective shear will continue to support a few
storms continuing to pose a severe risk with the ongoing
elevated convection. Quarter sized hail and damaging winds will
be the main concerns, though will have to watch any boundary
interactions. We could see an isolated surface based attempt
across central or south central KS along any residual outflow
boundaries that exist. Some hi-res models decrease the cap west
of I-135, particularly along the buoyancy gradient from Cowley
to Barton counties. It may be hard, to get a storm there, but
can`t rule out an all hazards supercell.

Otherwise, after 6-8z the incoming PV anomaly will increase ascent
across the area while strong low level moisture advection kicks off
with the 40-50kt LLJ overspreading the area. Scattered showers and
storms are expected to become more numerous across the area. With a
modest CAPE/shear combo continuing overnight, severe storms will
remain possible. Short term models still hold the idea of a
weakening cap across southern KS, which may allow for a sfc based
storm or two to develop overnight. Won`t be able to rule out a spin-
up overnight with 100-150 j/kg 3CAPE present with appreciable low
level SRH, otherwise heavy rain, damaging winds, and quarter to half
dollar sized hail will be possible. For tonight and the coming days
of repeated weather, chances for flooding will be increasing across
the area.

By tomorrow afternoon there remains a conditional chance for a
severe storm or two along and east of the Flint Hills, as the system
pushes northeast. While standard severe ingredients appear to be in
place, the dryline doesn`t look as sharp with little in the way of
sfc convergence to work with.

Saturday still has the potential to bring significant severe
weather to the area. However, as can be expected, recent model
changes include trends in which the trough is digging deeper/is
more amplified than previously forecast. Should this trend
continue, we may be turning on more waterworks than previously
forecast for this period. Still there remains uncertainty in the
forecast ranging from how potential convection initiating in SW
Oklahoma Saturday morning could disturb the warm sector, to
expected storm mode in the CWA, and to timing of CI over the
area.

Weak cap and ample forcing for ascent may generate storms early
Saturday afternoon and if so, severe hazards would be limited
to very large hail and damaging winds. By late afternoon and
early evening the risk for strong tornadoes will increase,
however, the window may be quite short.

The sfc low Saturday will be in the vicinity of western KS and is
progged to deepen and setup a dryline just west of the CWA by
peak heating. Moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg)
will combine with strong flow (50kts+ bulks shear), nicely
curved hodographs/strong LL SRH late afternoon, and strong 3CAPE
(200j/kg). Any storm that can remain discrete or even semi-
discrete in this type of environment will pose significant
hazards including strong tornadoes, large to very large (2-3
inch) hail, and damaging wind gusts. The 0-6km bulk shear vector
still looks to cross the dryline at a 45-60 degree angle, which
typically would favor semi-discrete to broken line storm mode.
With the meridional upper jet increasing, storms may tend to try
and go upscale quicker, which would dampen the sig tor and sig
hail risk.

Heading into Saturday night and early Sunday the main threat will
likely transition to heavy rain and flooding, especially over
portions of southeast Kansas. Most activity should end by Sunday
morning, with just far southeast KS potentially lingering
through late Sunday morning.

The upper trough will lift northeastward on Sunday, making way for a
warming trend as we go into the middle the next week. Quiet weather
will prevail at least until middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An outflow boundary has resulted in windy conditions with
easterly winds gusting over 30 knots at times with IFR and MVFR
cigs across much of the area. Some elevated showers and storms
continue to develop as the warm moist airmass is lifted over the
shallow cool outflow boundary. Another round of more robust
deep moist convection is possible after 08Z when the sfc low
ejects eastward allowing the warm and moist sector to move back
into south central Kansas. We could see some surface-based
storms and an increased severe weather threat from around 09Z to
around 16Z or so. Gusty westerly winds and VFR will return in
the wake of a Pacific front which is expected to advance
eastward across the area during the morning hours on Friday. The
boundary may hang up along the Flint Hills where additional
showers and storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday: Very high grassland fire danger is expected Friday afternoon
as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central and south-
central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...JC