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000
FXUS63 KICT 242017
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible late tonight into early tomorrow
  morning. Severe weather is also possible tomorrow afternoon
  and evening, though there is some uncertainty in tomorrow
  afternoons activity.

- Conditional severe chances east of the Flint Hills Friday
  afternoon/evening.

- Potentially significant severe weather anticipated on
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

As warm moist advection continues atop an 800-700mb baroclinic
zone, light showers will continue to try and develop through the
afternoon. CAPE is minimal, less than 300 J/kg at best through
early evening. Tonight, as enhanced moisture advection surges
into southern KS, more significant 850-300mb MUCAPE
(1500-2500J/kg) is progged along with 40-50kts of 1-6km bulk
shear and steep mid level lapse rates. Thus strong to severe
storms will be possible late tonight into tomorrow morning with
large hail (quarter to golf ball sized) being the main concern
along with isolated damaging wind gusts. As storms continue to
regenerate, some localized flooding concerns could develop.

Some solutions would suggest a line of storms/and or MCS may develop
toward morning along and east of a line from Russell/Lincoln
County to Harper County. We may remain grunged over on tomorrow as
storms continue to regenerate. An outflow boundary may result
from ongoing convection tomorrow which has the potential to
limit the otherwise warm front/warm sector from moving into the
area. In this scenario, the severe threat would be limited to
 elevated hailers primarily throughout the day. However, should
the outflow boundary be more weak or washed out from early
morning convection tomorrow, then the warm front/warm sector
would be able to move into the area increasing the risk for sfc
based storms. That said, the dryline is looking to set up across
far western KS/far eastern CO, and with ample CIN it could be
tough to initiate a sfc based storm across the CWA. However, any
sfc based storm would be capable of all severe hazards,
including storms that can survive the trek across western KS
into central KS. For now, the best guidance and local thinking
is the outflow scenario is most likely to play out.

With time, the pacific front/washed out dryline will push east into
central and south central KS, perhaps near/after 12z Friday morning.
Some model solutions show a nearly uncapped environment across
central and south central KS ahead of a PV anomaly. A similar
setup to last weeks convection which involved a couple brief AM
tornadoes amidst storm clusters looks to be in the cards, with
low level SRH of nearly 300 and 3CAPE of near 100 J/kg.

By Friday afternoon there could be time for a severe storm or two to
develop along and east of the Flint Hills, however it will be a race
against the large scale forcing for ascent which will be
starting to exit the area. While standard severe ingredients
appear to be in place, the dryline doesn`t look as sharp with
little in the way of sfc convergence to work with, aside from
perhaps a lingering boundaries from morning convection.

Saturday has the potential to bring significant severe weather
to the area. Of course there is plenty of time for the forecast
to change and there does remain some degree of uncertainty
particularly in storm mode. A sfc low in the vicinity of SW KS
is progged to deepen and move east/northeast potentially around
central/south central KS by peak heating. Moderate to strong
instability (2500-4000 J/kg) will combine with strong flow
(60kts+ bulks shear), nicely curved hodographs/strong LL SRH,
and strong 3CAPE (200j/kg). Any storm that can remain discrete
or even semi-discrete in this type of environment will pose
significant hazards from strong to potentially violent
tornadoes, large to very large (2-3+ inch) hail, and damaging
wind gusts.

The upper trough will move northeastward on Sunday, making way for a
warming trend as we go into the middle the next week. Quiet weather
will prevail at least until middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Shower/thunderstorm chances will gradually be on the increase
tonight, persisting through at least Thursday morning, as
800-600mb warm/moist advection increases amidst increasing
instability. The instability/shear combination should favor at
least a handful of strong to severe storms capable of large
hail, along with locally heavy rainfall. Covered this threat
with PROB30 groups for now at all TAF sites. Additionally, the
increasing low-level moisture will support widespread MVFR to
possibly IFR ceilings later tonight through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Friday: Very high grassland fire danger is expected Friday afternoon
as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central and south-
central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JC