Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 050509
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLDEST CORE OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING OVERHEAD//925MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -22C//.
NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD DECOUPLE PRETTY GOOD
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SLACKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BELOW ZERO. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S BELOW
ZERO AS A RESULT. SINCE THIS WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...AND BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. WILL LEAVE UP TO
THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONTINUE ASSESSING TEMPERATURE/WIND TREND AND
POSSIBLE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL HEADLINE.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN STORE AS HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS/MIDDLE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

EXPECTING INCREASING MID-CLOUD THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT BY LATE EVENING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...THEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION/INCREASING CLOUD COVER KICKS IN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL/500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY ON THE
RISE WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TRACK STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN CANADA. THIS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. MAY
HAVE SOME MID CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH ALONG WITH A SHOT AT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT NONETHELESS...HIGHS
ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 30S...AND POSSIBLY REACHING
NEAR THE 40 DEGREE MARK AT A FEW LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.

MODERATING HEIGHTS BEING SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INTO NEXT WEEK
AS WEST COAST RIDGE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND BUILDS EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL CONUS. ECMWF A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH RIDGE STRENGTH AND
THEREFORE MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS. BLEND YIELDS HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MIDDLE 30S/LOWER 40S...IN THE 40S MONDAY...MID 40S/LOWER 50S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

PERHAPS A FEW MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON
THU...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER IOWA. DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY CIGS.

EXPECTING A TURN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST IN WIND DIRECTION FROM
THIS EVENING INTO THU EVENING...THANKS TO A SFC HIGH MEANDERING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AT KLSE WITH DECOUPLING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY SLACK THROUGH THU...TIGHTENING
UP THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. LLWS COULD BE
AN ISSUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 06Z FRI WITH WINDS AROUND 45 KTS BY
1500 FT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK



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