Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 252054
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING TONIGHT SO DECIDED TO KEEP IT
AS PROBABILITY INSTEAD OF COVERAGE. IF THE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...SOME
VERY LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. ALSO...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE PLAN ON LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT.

ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AS A
SEPARATE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SNOW AND
RAIN LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

BY FRIDAY EVENING...A BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR
NOT THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL INTERACT
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM AND GFS OFFER
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD YIELD LIGHTER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH STRONGER...AND
DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF THESE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...WE WOULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY...TRAVEL WILL
BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SLIPPERY ROADS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEEING
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH PLUS RANGE AT THIS TIME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THEN SWEEPS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE COLD
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS TUESDAY..WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD FALL TO AROUND -20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE GROUND HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HELP BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM IOWA AND SCATTER OUT
THE CLOUDS AT RST. RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC...SO HAVE REVERTED AND MADE THE TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC.
HAVE NOW BROUGHT SCATTERING TO VFR CONDITIONS AT LSE AT 21Z. A
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF TONIGHT. LATE
IN THE NIGHT...A TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST MN LOOKS ON TRACK TO CROSS
RST...AND TOWARDS SUNRISE AT LSE. LOW CEILING STRATUS RETURNS IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WITH RST LIKELY DROPPING TO IFR AND
LIFR. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEY SHOULD HELP PREVENT LSE FROM DROPPING
BELOW MVFR. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEAR LIKELY
TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW STRATUS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SITE OF RST. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING THEM DOWN TO
LIFR. CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING IT DOWN TO IFR. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THESE LOW
VISIBILITIES. COVERAGE AT THIS TIME NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ



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