000
FXUS63 KARX 031741
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN WINNING OUT THIS MORNING WITH ICE NOT BEING
INTRODUCED IN THE COLUMN OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER. DEFORMATION BAND WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD STAY UP THERE WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR INDICATING THAT THE 1-3 INCH SNOW TOTALS ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE. IF THESE TRENDS PAN OUT...THE BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY
OVERDONE AS WELL. THE ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
AFTERNOON IF THAT IS THE CASE...BUT WILL BE HELD ONTO FOR COVERING
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A BAND OF SNOW AND SLEET WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS BAND LOOKS TO JUST
CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GRANT COUNTY THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 270-310K SURFACES. THE FORECAST
AREA IS REALLY IN BETWEEN BETTER FORCING MECHANISMS. YOU HAVE THE
DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE REDUCED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BY ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS NOW RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA TO AROUND 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE WARM LAYER JUST EDGES INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SLEET WILL MOST LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...AS THE LOW MOVES EAST WE START TO LOSE
ICE ALOFT OVER THESE AREAS SO WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINOR. A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
WHEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 52.

THE SNOW SHOULD END BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN THE WINDS KICK IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN  WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 17 MPH WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -25 ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE  BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A
BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30. THE HIGH
THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
SATURDAY THEN INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH/EAST OF THE
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WI.
AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MINNESOTA TOWARD THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
THROUGH THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z...PLAN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. WAS PREVIOUSLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR KRST THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...APPEARS THIS THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. LOOK FOR THESE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON MVFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH 08Z AT KRST AND 10Z
AT KLSE...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS