000
FXUS63 KARX 051739 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1139 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY NARROW
BUT INTENSE BAND OF SNOW FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGED FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND END AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO...WILL EDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS SITUATED OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL EDGE EAST TODAY. SKIES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM CLOUDY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
PARTLY SUNNY OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE THE UPPER TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE 20S
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INTO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH...AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING AND POSSIBLY BLOWING SNOW OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION  TYPE LOOKS TO START
OUT AS FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH 3 KFT WITH WEAK LIFT IN THIS
LAYER. THERE IS A DRY LAYER ALOFT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KFT THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND THE COLUMN STARTS TO SATURATE. AT THIS TIME THINKING
THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE
BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINOR. THE
UPPER TROUGH THEN FINALLY CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT OVER FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER THESE AREAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PERIODIC WEAK
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

SUBSIDENCE AND A SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN LOOK TO KEEP THE MVFR
CLOUDS MORE SCT ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AS A SMALL
AREA OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MIXING TO 900MB. GENERALLY SCT MVFR
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS MIXING WANES AND THE INVERSION
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...AROUND 950-925MB...TRAPPED UNDER THIS
INVERSION NEAR 925MB WILL BE PROBLEMATIC LATER TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING. EASTERLY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS TO SPREAD INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME OF IT
ORIGINATING FROM LK MI...ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT/THU
MORNING. CARRIED BKN MVFR CIGS AFTER 08-09Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. MDT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE 10-12KT RANGE THRU THE NIGHT. THIS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR BR/HZ. TIGHTER GRADIENT AND DEEPER
MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS 15KT G25KT BY MID-DAY THU...
ESPECIALLY AT SITES LIKE KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS