Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 250500
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS LINGER WELL WEST OF THE
LOW THOUGH...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CLEARING OF THE
MVFR DECK AT KRST AROUND 11Z AND KLSE BY 14Z. SHOULD SEE SCT/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN FOR AN MVFR DECK AFTER 00Z WED /TUE
NIGHT/. RAP AND NAM12 RH FIELDS SUGGEST CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER ND
WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KRST...POSSIBLY KLSE. WILL ALLUDE TO IT FOR
NOW...ADDING IN A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD IN ADDITION TO BKN HIGH CIGS.
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS TO RETURN ON WED AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LIKELY SEE SOME -SN TOO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK



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