Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 251137
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS WI/SOUTHEAST MN/EASTERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THIS MORNING. KRST HAS ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...CEILINGS AT KLSE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 25.14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
BETWEEN 2000 TO 2500 FT AGL AS SUBSIDENT DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT KLSE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOP...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN LATEST 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MN WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VFR CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING AT BOTH
TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CLOUDS. SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF KRST
THROUGH 26.12Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



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