Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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855
FXUS63 KARX 012000
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
200 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Current water vapor imagery/surface analysis shows surface low over
Lower MI/Lake Huron with a trailing vigorous mid-level trough moving
through our region. Snow associated with this trough push east
through central/southwest WI. Will be monitoring for the possibly of
dropping the Winter Weather Advisory early for all by Juneau/Adams
Counties.

Another weaker mid-level trough dropping into the region overnight
for the possibility of another trace to locally 1/2 inch of
snowfall.

Attention then turns to a rather vigorous/fast moving storm system
dropping out of the central Canadian Provinces/Northern Plains,
impacting the area Thursday. Right now, it`s looking like any where
from 1/2 inch to locally 3 inches. Heaviest snowfall also looks to
be west of the Mississippi River, closer to stronger 850-700mb
frontogenesis. Look for this snow to quickly exit southeast of the
area by early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

A ridge of high pressure will provide a quiet Friday with highs in
the mid 20s to middle 30s. Quiet weather looks to be short-lived
though as warm air advection/isentropic lift Friday night could
produce some light snow.

A warming trend is in store for Saturday and Sunday as mid-level
ridge amplification takes place. Plan on highs in the upper 30s to
near 50 on Saturday and well into the 50s/near 60 Sunday.

Increasing moisture transport ahead of low pressure and cold front
moving through the Northern/Central Plains Monday will produce a
chance of rain and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms. Otherwise,
another warm day on tap with highs in the mid 50s/near 60.

Cold front will pass through the region Monday night for a continued
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Cooler weather on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
40s. A few showers could linger on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday noon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

One system with IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys in snow had already moved east
of KRST and will move east of KLSE by 20z. Behind it will be left
MVFR cigs mostly in the 1k-2k ft range and VFR vsbys thru the
afternoon. Another week wave is set to spread MVFR cigs/vsbys in
-SN across the taf sites this evening. This then rather quickly
exits around midnight, leaving the MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys thru the
overnight hours. Yet another stronger wave dropping in from the NW
is looking to spread a band of MVFR/lcl IFR cigs/vsbys in -SN across
areas mainly along/west of the MS river Thu morning. Confidence in
the details not the highest for Thu morning, but potential for 1 to
2 inches of fluffy snow across SE MN Thu morning, with perhaps 1/2
inch at KLSE. Did carry mainly IFR at KRST Thu morning and left KLSE
with MVFR cigs and VCSH at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

River levels remain elevated on many area waterways. Portions of the
Mississippi are expected to continue to see rises over the next few
days. The Mississippi River near McGregor is expected to reach minor
flood stage Thursday morning, with mainly in bank rises along other
portions of the river.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ029-
     034-042>044.

MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....DAS



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