Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 191211
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
711 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Main forecast concerns are on strong to perhaps isolated severe
thunderstorms today with the potential for heavy rainfall and
strong winds.

Thunderstorms were ongoing early this morning mainly across portions
of southeast Minnesota into west central and central Wisconsin.
These storms have been producing periods of heavy rainfall along
with gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph. The heaviest rain has been falling
across northern Buffalo, Trempealeau, and western Jackson counties.
After the storms taper off later this morning, we should see another
round of showers and storms this afternoon along a frontal boundary
sliding in from the northwest. Afternoon MUCAPE values climb into
the 1500 to 3000 J/KG range this afternoon. Much of the shear in
lagging behind the front behind the highest MUCAPE values. The
bigger concern, assign from isolated damaging winds with the
storms this afternoon, will be the potential for heavy rainfall
with any storms today. Precipitable water values will climb to
around 2 inches today. Meanwhile a vigorous trough pushes in from
the northwest and a surface low is expected to deepen across the
upper Mississippi River Valley and as it does periods of shower
and storms will continue. Forecast models are edgeing into two
camps, the NAM and GEM are rather strong with a heavy rainfall
across much of the local area with the low tracking across western
Wisconsin. The ECMWF and the GFS take the low further to the
northeast and don`t deepen it until is over eastern Lake Superior,
which means less rain for the local area. At this time rain is
looking likely from late this afternoon all the way through
Saturday. Monitor forecasts closely as we could see an additional
1 to locally 3 inches of rain during this timeframe. Rises on
rivers are likely with the potential for some flooding. Cooler air
will also arrive with the low pressure system, making it feel more
like autumn a times.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Rain looks to continue into Saturday tapering to scattered showers
as we go into Sunday as the upper trough swings through.
Temperatures then look to warm slightly by the middle of next week
but then chances for more showers and storms return. Weak
troughing then looks to setup across the upper Midwest late in the
week into next weekend with some low chances for showers and
storms and rather conformable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The showers and storms will move east of the area by 19.16z
and then another round of showers and storms will move into the
area between 19.21z and 19.24z. This precipitation will then
continue through tonight. The heavier showers and storms will
reduce visibilities and ceilings into the IFR/MVFR range. However
the timing is far from certain...so did not include this at this
time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Through this weekend.
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The potential for flooding will continue into the weekend as we
see repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to locally 3 inches are possible. In
addition to the flash flood threat today, flooding along the main
rivers may become a concerns by later in the weekend into early
next week. Monitor the weather closely, especially if you have
interests along area rivers and streams.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP



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