Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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346
FXUS63 KARX 031508
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
908 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WI DIMINISHED
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 1345Z...WITH ONLY SOME -SN OR FLURRIES
LINGERING AS OF 15Z. -SN/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THRU THE MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THRU 18Z
WILL MAINLY BE 1/4 INCH OR LESS...THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENTUAL EXIT OF THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM. MAIN THRUST OF HEAVY PRECIP IS WELL PAST THE
REGION...BUT THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION WAS STILL NEAR KDMX AT 07Z
PER RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS. THIS WILL TRACK TO NEAR KDBQ BY 12Z
AND TO NEAR KMKX BY 18Z. RADAR SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC
DRIVEN DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
CIRCULATION...AND ANTICIPATE THIS WILL TRACK RIGHT ALONG WITH IT.
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POPS WITH THIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AND IT
COULD END UP DROPPING ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF
YESTERDAYS MESS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM...
AND THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING ISSUES. BUT THE WET
NATURE OF THIS SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL BLOWING ISSUES.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THE
OVERALL IMPACT IS DIMINISHING SO WILL LET THE WARNING EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 AM. BY THAT TIME ROAD CREWS WILL BE OUT EN MASS TO
MITIGATE MOST TRAVEL TROUBLE.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH TIME. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF MN/IA LATE IN THE DAY. WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
STEADY OR EVEN FALL SOME DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE THAT IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD
PROVIDE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. THAT QUICKLY MOVES
AWAY...BUT THE NEXT ONE IS DUE IN FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LIGHT DUSTING. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN LOOKS
TO TAKE ON A DIFFERENT LOOK WITH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF WAVES BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WORK TO DEEPEN A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...WITH A WEST COAST
RIDGE. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONE THING THAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT
WEEK. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

WINTER STORM EXITING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE JUST
STARTING TO CLEAR KLSE...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT THE MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWS OF EARLIER. GOING TO HANG
ONTO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIVE -SN FOR A FEW HOURS PAST 12Z FOR KLSE. AT
KRST...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE POTENTIAL BLSN WILL PLAY OUT. A
LOT OF SNOW...BUT GENERALLY HEAVY/WET IN CONSISTENCY. HARDER TO
MOVE. MIGHT BE MORE DRIFTING THAN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH
BLOWING/VSBYS. GOING TO HOLD ONTO SOME BLSN MVFR VSBYS FOR THE
MORNING...AND WILL MONITOR.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR EAST NEAR 00Z. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATTED TO DRIVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/THU. CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME -SN POTENTIAL
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OF THU.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RRS
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM....MW
AVIATION.....RIECK



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