Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 181658
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1100 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

At 3 AM, a band of strong 700 to 500 mb frontogenesis was
producing rain from southeast Nebraska northeast through northeast
Iowa, extreme southeast Minnesota, and southwest and central
Wisconsin. Hourly rainfall amounts range from a trace to 0.05
inches.

The 18.08Z RAP shows that this band of frontogenesis will continue
to move southeast this morning and moves out of the area by
18.16z. As this occurs, the precipitation will end across the
area. Soundings suggest as the boundary layer cools that there
will be a mix of rain and snow. There may be a brief period of all
snow as the precipitation ends. Snow amounts across southwest
Wisconsin and a small portion of northeast Iowa will range from a
trace to maybe a few tenths of an inch.

In the wake of this system, the combination of a tight surface

pressure gradient and steep 950-900 mb lapse rates will result in
northwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph. These wind gusts will
gradually diminish this evening as the low level lapse rates
weaken. Wind chills this afternoon will range from the teens to
mid 20s.

Another short wave trough will move through the region tonight.
This system will produce mostly cloudy skies along and north of
the Interstate 94 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

On Monday, 18.00z models continue to show that 925 mb temperatures
will warm into the 6 to 9C in the ECMWF and from 4 to 9C in the
GFS. With quite a bit of sunshine, the high temperatures will
likely range from the mid 40s in north central Wisconsin to
around 50 in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa.

On Monday night, a strong Canadian cold front will move southeast
through the region. 925 mb temperatures will dramatically cool and
by Tuesday afternoon they will range from -5 to -8C in the GFS
and -6 and -9C in the ECMWF. High temperatures will range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s on Tuesday and from the mid 20s to mid
30s on Wednesday.

On Friday, 925 mb warm dramatically ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. The ECMWF has these temperatures warming into
the 9 to 12C range. Meanwhile, in the GFS, these temperatures
range from 9 to 14C. The NAEFS 850 mb temperature anomalies are 1
to 2 standard deviations just to the west and southwest of the
forecast area. The ECMWF has high temperatures ranging from the
upper 40s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, the GFS has its high
temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to mid 50s. In both cases,
the warmest temperatures are along and west of the Mississippi
River. Since this warmth has been a consistent signal in the
models, raised the maximum temperatures 5 to 10F above the model
consensus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Cigs: low cigs are quickly vacating to the east at late morning. Mid
level trough could bring a few hour period of vfr cigs for late
afternoon/evening...otherwise expect skc/sct conditions through
Sunday morning.

Wx/vsby: no impacts expected at this time.

Winds: tight pressure gradient will keep winds "up" and gusty into
this evening, relaxing overnight/sunday as high pressure influences
from the south. Direction will hold mostly northwest into Sun
morning, gradually transitioning to the south as the high pressure
ridge moves east.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Rieck



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