Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 120900
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

COLD FRONT FROM NRN MN INTO SERN WY WILL MOVE THROUGH IA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THROUGH THE
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. ONGOING MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ALONG RIBBON OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AT NOSE OF LLJ WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE
GENERALLY LIFTING ENE. ANTICIPATE SOME DIMINISHING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AS SYSTEM PUSHES
NORTH. GIVEN EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...HAVE CUT BACK ON
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WARM.

FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BECOME WEAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SD/NE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING INTO CWA BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BOUNDARY
APPROACHING...PUSHING SE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MAY LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER...IF AREA CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY
ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...AWAY FROM BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALSO BE IN BETTER DYNAMICS...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LASTLY...PWAT VALUES LATE IN PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

EXPECT TO SEE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. PWAT VALUES ARE
ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE THREAT WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION BECOMES
COOL POOL DRIVEN AND SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRIER...THOUGH THERE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE
DURING PEAK HEATING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOWS FOR MID JUL FOR BUT
AND WED. A SLOW MODERATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...12/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM LAST TAF UPDATE PACKAGE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NE TO NORTHWEST IA. MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER KFOD...0.5 INCHES TO 1 INCH OF
PRECIP POSSIBLE. HELD THUNDER OUT OF KMCW AND KALO...AS THINKING
STORMS WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY REACH THAT PART OF IA. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR VISBY AT KMCW TO MAKE SURE DOES NOT DROP BELOW
4SM. AFTER 13Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...AM EXPECTING CIGS TO GO ABOVE
3500 FT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...KOTENBERG



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