000
FXUS63 KDMX 111745
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SNOW HAS ERODED AWAY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WESTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE FURTHER RELAXES AND WITH BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY LATE TONIGHT INITIALLY IN THE NORTH BUT SPREADING
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN RESPONSE AS
SATURATION DEEPENS WITH STRENGTHENING LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN IOWA. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH EURO AND GFS SLIPPING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE FAR NORTH AFTER 3 AM. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS RIGHT
ALONG THE MINNESOTA BORDER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY START AS A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALTHOUGH WITH THE
WETBULB RIGHT AROUND FREEZING SOME MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES WITHIN
A FAIRLY SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND HAVE MAINTAINED THIS
MENTION IN THE FORECAST...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
MOVES IN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY COLD ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE EC/GFS INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION
RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT THE
RELATIVE COLD SPELL OF WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD IS CAUSING LIGHT
QPF TO BE SPIT OUT BY SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY AND
HAVE HELD POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE AND CHANCE POPS
ARE BEING ADVERTISED BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. MORE WARMTH WILL THEN BE ON TAP INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND MONDAY...WITH A DEEPER 500 MB TROUGH
PROJECTED AT THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AROUND NEXT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTREME LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...11/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FIRST BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA MAY CAUSE SOME IFR TO MVFR VIS THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. OTM IS THE MAIN CONCERN WHERE MODERATE SNOW AND
WINDS LOOK TO AFFECT THE AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
LIFR CIGS/VIS FOR WINDS AND SNOWFALL TONIGHT. STRATUS AND CAA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG