Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDMX 221129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
529 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF NRN ALBERTA AND BRUSH NERN IA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. JET STREAM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WILL THE
STORM TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY DEALT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUD COVER BY AROUND 19Z-20Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING B/T 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST
IOWA TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY AND ADVECTS IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND ALLOWS THE INVERSION TO WEAKEN. THUS...WENT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT A LITTLE SOONER. WENT CLOSER THE
MAVMOS/SREF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE IDEAS OF THE MODELS FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS INTO TODAY. WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF ALBERTA WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL COLD AIR
FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM AND WILL SEE MILD LATE JANUARY WEATHER
CONTINUE.

A THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING IN VERY MILD AIR.
TUE WILL BE QUITE WARM...MAINLY SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
WARMING ON WED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE +16 AT H8 MAKING IT INTO
THE STATE. WENT WARMER THAN MOS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
OMS FORECASTS FOR WED. ALL SIGNS LOOK GOOD FOR GOOD WARMING OVER
NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS.

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
INDICATIONS POINT TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BY THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY RIVALING THE COLD OUTBREAK WE SAW THE WEEK OF
THE 5TH.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT MCW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT A
SMALL BREAK IN THE STRATUS DECK MAY SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
PROVIDE A SHORT STINT OF MVFR OR EVEN VFR CIGS MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FOD/ALO/OTM SHOULD STAY STRATUS OVER THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THINKING THE HIGH MOVING INTO OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH WEAKENING TO THE INVERSION AND DRY
AIR INTO THE STATE THE MVFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND
17Z-18Z AT DSM AND FOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JAN 15
AVIATION...PODRAZIK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.