Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 142135
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

STRATUS AND WARM MOIST AIR REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO APPROACH THE CWA OVERNIGHT BECOMING
CENTERED JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NE KS BY 12Z MONDAY.
LINE OF SHOWERS/RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SW NE INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE STUCK WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS
TOWARD LATE TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST QPF FALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION FOR TONIGHT AS ELEVATED CAPE LOOKS
VERY ISOLATED AND BETTER OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AGAIN CENTER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS
THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS HAVING RECOVERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON
REGARDING VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER WITH THE ABUNDANT NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED PUSH OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA...WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP AGAIN AS WE APPROACH SUNSET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME CONCERNS THAT THE FOG WILL LIFT AS THE
PRECIPITATION PUSHES INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL ADVISE LATER SHIFTS
TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

FORECAST REMAIN FOCUSED ON WRAPPED UP LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF/ECMWF
BLEND TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL WITH THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF PRECIP TOMORROW.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE IN EASTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY TRACK EAST-
NORTHEAST AND CENTER ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z
TUESDAY. A TROWAL SETS UP OVER EASTERN MISSOURI/WESTERN ILLINOIS
AND BENDS BACK NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMES ORIENTED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MONDAY. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS STREAMING NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY TO COINCIDE WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND TROWAL
SET UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.

THE BEST QG FORCING MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA AND THERE REMAINS SOME
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD GET A BRIEF
DRY SLOT PUNCHED INTO THIS AREA MONDAY MORNING AS SOME MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS AREA. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA MONDAY MORNING.

CAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AND HAVE SLEET/RAIN MIX GOING PAST 22Z OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. CAA SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY ENOUGH TO SWITCH PRECIP OVER
TO ALL SNOW PAST 00Z TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD WITH SLEET/SNOW MIX BEFORE
TRANSITIONING COMPLETELY OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z TUESDAY.
HOWEVER BY 06Z TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS OVER THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMPLETELY EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY. ONLY ANTICIPATING AN INCH OR
LESS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND TRACE AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. THE CAA
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND BRINGS IN SOME A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS...SO WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A GOOD SHOT OF THE SUN
ON TUESDAY. ALBEIT...IT WILL BE COLD AND WINDY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS MISSOURI
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY SKIRT NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH THAN GFS. ONLY
HAVE SMALL POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...14/12Z
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

STRATUS AND FOG TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME RECOVER TO IFR/MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY STILL SEE SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. RAIN ALSO TO PUSH INTO THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. IF ANY OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY BE NEAR KOTM WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS


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